951
FXUS62 KFFC 010841
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
441 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

At a glance:

  - Hot temperatures again today across the S half of the area with a
    Heat Advisory in effect.
  - Lower rain chances across N GA and portions of central GA today
    through Tuesday.

An upper level high pressure center is presently located over NE TX
with a ridge extending ESE to the FL Panhandle and SW GA. At the
surface, a weak cold front over extreme N GA will sag S across the
County Warning Area (CWA) today. Drier and more stable air will
filter into the area today. Shower and thunderstorm activity pressed
S overnight, with the greatest coverage over the E portion of the
area. A few of these storms were strong, and some locally heavy rains
occurred SE of Macon. As of this writing, most rain has cleared the
area.

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon from NE GA into the
Atlanta metro area. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be found SE of Macon. Heat will be a concern again today, with
heat indices of 105-108 across much of the southern half of the area
(S of the Atlanta metro area). Another Heat Advisory has been issued
for that area. Lower heat indices are possible across the E portion
of the advisory area late this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms
develop.

Some of the high resolution model guidance is developing some
nocturnal showers near and S of the Atlanta metro area tonight. This
activity appears to be coincident with some weak isentropic lift
near the nose of a surface ridge pushing SW into the area behind the
surface front. Have kept isolated activity into tonight in those
areas. Low temperatures tonight will range from near 60 across the NE
mountains to the lower 70s across the S and in the Atlanta urban
heat island.

A gradient of PoPs from N to S will continue on Tuesday, with
mostly dry weather expected from the Atlanta metro area northward
ranging to low end likely PoPs across the extreme S. Temperatures
will be milder across the area on Tuesday, with highs mostly in the
80s (even some mid 70s across the NE ridgetops). Easterly winds will
increase late Monday night into Tuesday, with some gusts over 20 mph
across the N half of the area. The lower temperatures and breezier
conditions should make for a nice reprieve from the summer heat.
/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

The frontal boundary that is expected to pass through Georgia Monday
and Tuesday should be just south of our area on the GA/FL border
which will in turn keep rain chances more limited to central Georgia
just north of the boundary. PWATs are currently forecast to be
between 1.5-2" for Wednesday which could result in efficient rain
producers with any showers or storms that form. Considering the 2.5-
3 inches of rainfall central Georgia received tonight, that area
will need to be watched closely for any flooding concerns over the
next couple of days.

Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the
high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the
mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and
the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front
looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday increasing rain
chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then
looks to sag southward over the area into Sunday evening which is
reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models
are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again
any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we`ll
have to keep an eye on the flooding potential although this is still
at day 7.

Outside of the two main boundaries moving through, daily scattered
rain chances can be expected mainly due to diurnal heating over the
area. Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the
weekend and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat
indices will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for
the July 4th weekend.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. However,
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may bring brief
periods of MVFR cigs and/or vsbys to both MCN and CSG. A few
showers are also possible this afternoon for some Atlanta metro
sites as well as AHN. Have included VCSH for that eventuality. NW
to N winds will become more northeasterly by late morning or early
afternoon. Eventually, winds will become easterly by this evening.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high on timing of easterly component to wind and extent
of afternoon shower activity, high for other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          92  68  87  68 /  30  20  10  20
Atlanta         94  72  87  72 /  30  20  10  10
Blairsville     87  63  82  63 /  20  10  10  10
Cartersville    93  70  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        99  74  87  73 /  30  30  40  20
Gainesville     90  68  85  69 /  30  10  10  10
Macon           96  72  86  71 /  50  30  40  20
Rome            93  72  90  72 /   0   0  10  10
Peachtree City  96  70  87  70 /  30  20  20  10
Vidalia         93  72  86  73 /  70  50  60  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
for GAZ059-060-069>073-078>086-089>098-102>113.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SEC