079
FXUS62 KFFC 301845
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

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...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Afternoon spotty thunderstorms area-wide this afternoon, with
greatest PoPs along a weak frontal boundary moving out of NW GA
towards the SE. No widespread severe is expected at this time,
however thunderstorms could become strong with gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and heavy rainfall. Drier air is present behind the
frontal boundary with PWATs <1.5". This will contrast what we have
seen this past week with PWATs >1.8". The frontal boundary will
likely stall near the ATL metro, meaning areas south of I20 will
remain soupy through the short term outlook. Scattered thunderstorms
return tomorrow, however these should generally remain along and
south of a line from CSG to MCN (in the moist air).

The main thing to watch for will be temperatures. Highs in the mid
to upper 90s with dewpoints in the 70s will see heat indices climb
to near 100 once again. Eastern and West Central GA will see heat
indices in excess of 105. Tomorrow, the hottest conditions will be
in Central GA near Columbus and Macon where heat indices of 103+ is
expected. Conditions will feel a bit cooler North of I20 where
dewpoints could be as low as the mid 60s.
SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Tuesday will be the last day in the post frontal airmass which will
be noticeably drier..with near climo max Ts on Tuesday which will be
supplanted by a warming trend and increased moisture through the
remainder of the week.  500mb ridge over the southern plains on
Tuesday will shift and center over the SE US by Wednesday while
surface ridge shifts off the east coast putting the region back into
a slight moisture advection regime. Pops, while non-zero, will be
noticeably lower and below climo through the 4th. Temps on the 4th
will rise into the mid 90s with dewpoints topping out in the upper
60s thus keeping heat indices around the 100 across the area and
below advisory thresholds...at least for now. Will need to keep
on eye on trends in the dewpoints the coming days as that will
play a bigger role in the index.

By late on the 4th into Friday, the pattern begins to break down as
Beryl will be located near the Yucatan along the southwestern
periphery of the SE US mid level ridge and shortwave energy dives SE
from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. The SE ridge begins
to fill as heights lower across the region allowing for an uptick
in diurnal convection going into the weekend. Weak boundary
approaches with upper midwest energy swinging through the the
north by Saturday and with no discernible capping, should see a
bit more diurnal coverage of storms through the weekend.

As for Beryl...still a bit of uncertainty in the track beyond the
Yucatan and theres still a good bit of spread in the extended due to
models not handling the breakdown of the SE ridge with any
consistency. The trend is to have a break in the ridge over TX and
the western Gulf which may allow for the system or its remnants to
turn north but that would only assume it doesn`t stay south into
Central America which is also represented by a large chunk of
ensemble members.  At this point, it does not appear to be direct
threat to our region more than increased moisture and precip chances
at the end of the extended IF it takes the northerly route into the
NW Gulf.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Continued mid to low cloud cover is delaying convection near and
south of the metro. A line of shra and tsra moving across NW GA will
make its way to the South and East, likely impacting the metro in a
few hours. -tsra becomes more spotty further south through the
evening. W and SW winds will transition to N and NE winds tmr
afternoon. PoPs tomorrow will be relegated near CSG to MCN and
south. Chance for lower cigs tmr morning, should remain sct.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium PoP timing.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  91  68  85 /  40  20  30  10
Atlanta         75  93  72  86 /  20  20  20  20
Blairsville     67  87  63  82 /  20  20  20  10
Cartersville    70  92  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        76  97  74  86 /  30  40  30  50
Gainesville     73  89  69  85 /  20  20  20  10
Macon           74  94  70  84 /  40  50  30  40
Rome            72  92  70  90 /  10   0  10  10
Peachtree City  73  94  70  86 /  20  20  20  20
Vidalia         76  94  72  85 /  40  80  60  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-047>051-056-058>062-067>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...SM