492
FXUS63 KFGF 191518
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No impactful weather expected over the next seven days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The cold front in northwest MN is actively pushing east with
stratus ahead of the immediate frontal zone. As any severe
threat today will be along/ahead of this front, the presence of
stratus would only delay initiation in our east, and by time it
breaks up the front is timed to be out of our area, lowering
confidence in deep/severe convection in our area. If it breaks
up sooner and the front slows down there is still a narrow early
afternoon window, but CAM trends do not currently support this.
Otherwise, showers and non severe convection chances remain
mainly in the Devils Lake basin through the afternoon (closer
to the mid level circulation in Canada).

UPDATE
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Some weak showers have developed just west of Devils Lake near
Harvey, ND. Looking at observations in the surrounding area it
looks like nothing is hitting the ground. Some mid-level clouds
are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning
cloudy conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Synopsis...

An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast
into the Manitoba province today. As the departing low moves
northeast it leaves an area of divergence to possibly produce
showers along the Canadian border. Another shortwave creates more
precipitation chances through the Sunday morning.

Today: The departing low occludes as it starts to push northeast.
This will push the front closer to the arrowhead and leave North
Dakota fairly stable behind this front. However, there is a pocket
of moisture in the northern valley that may create some light
showers this afternoon and evening thanks to the overlapping area of
divergence near the Canadian border as this low pressure peels off.
These showers should dissipate as the sun goes down and sets for the
day. The pressure gradient will just be tight enough to give us some
gusty winds up to 30 mph if we mix up to the 925/850mb level tapping
into those 25 knot winds.

Friday and through the weekend: A brief period of drying will occur
during the day Friday. The atmosphere will remain fairly stable as
the Northern Plains enters a brief dry westerly flow. However,
another shortwave starts to move in early Saturday morning and give
us precipitation for Saturday with the most likely area being West
central Minnesota. rainfall amounts currently look light but that
could change slightly for better or worse in the next models runs as
the amount of dry air from Friday`s westerly pattern is better
analyzed. Sunday and Monday look dry as the Northern plains
transition between a Northern and Westerly flow thanks to a low
pressure system travels through the Central US.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period today. The pressure
gradient will create peak wind gusts between 25 to 30 kts today.
The winds will start to decrease to 10 to 15 kts when the sun
goes down. Showers will be possible between 18z to 02z near the
Canadian Border, however a couple models brought those showers
near KGFK and KTVF. Not confident those showers will reach near
KGFK and KTVF so they were left out of the TAFs.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MM/DJR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...MM