357
FXUS63 KFGF 181102
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
602 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms for most of
  the FA this afternoon and evening, including the potential
  for supercells.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

The most consistent area of showers and storms is currently
moving through the Devils Lake region, otherwise the activity
elsewhere is pretty isolated. The line near Devils Lake will
continue lifting north, while the isolated activity elsewhere
will continue through the morning as well. There should still be
a break after this current activity fades before stronger
activity gets going again this afternoon. The lower visibilities
due to fog have generally improved.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...Synopsis...

This will be an abbreviated discussion this morning due to
ongoing convection and backing up WFO Bismarck.

...Severe potential this afternoon and evening..

The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook is a bit different than it
was at this time yesterday. It now covers the far eastern FA
with a Level 1 out of 5 risk too, and leaves out the western
Devils Lake region down through areas west of the Valley City.
There is a Level 2 out of 5 risk for portions of the far
southern Red River Valley, which clips portions of Richland/
Wilkin and Otter Tail and all of Grant County.

To start, there are always questions with what happens after the
morning convection (ie residual boundaries or outflow, cloud
trends, etc.). As has been the case for quite a few days in a
row now, there is plenty of moisture. Surface dewpoints may get
close to 70 degrees this afternoon, with precipitable water
values close to 2 inches. That is pretty amazing for mid
September! The morning clouds should give way to some sunshine,
which will lead to building instability by late morning into
the afternoon. Most CAMs seem to indicate a potential hour or
two break between the ending morning convection and re-
developing late morning and afternoon convection.

There was quite a bit of rainfall across the northern FA the
other day, so if any storms train across those areas today,
they could be susceptible to additional flooding. Pretty hard to
nail down where that might be at this point, so will just keep
that in mind for now. The low level jet never really goes away
today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity. Don`t see a
consistent focus area, but it will definitely keep the moisture
feed coming northward. The HREF develops some more consistent UH
tracks by mid to late afternoon along the RRV, continuing into
the early to mid evening east of the RRV. So it should be
another busy day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Other than KDVL, it currently doesn`t look like TSRA will affect
any of the other TAF sites early this morning. The lower
visibilities around KDVL have also improved, so think the fog
threat is done now too. There should be a break until the
stronger activity gets going again this afternoon. Tried to put
in an idea of when storms may get going again, but confidence in
this exact timing is still fairly low. Later shifts can refine
if confidence improves. South winds will be fairly gusty today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/TT
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon/TT