139
FXUS63 KFGF 271126
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions thru
   Sunday.

-  Cold front Monday and cooler weather next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...Synopsis...

More of a 500 mb west-east flow across the area the upcoming 7
days. There will be several short waves in this but with main
upper level jet in Canada roughly from central B.C. thru central
Alberta/Sask/Manitoba impacts weather wise in our area will be
minimal.

...Today and Saturday...

500 mb short wave trough moving thru the area with associated
weak cold front/wind shift. This wind shift will be east of the
area by 15z today. Winds today much lighter than on Thursday
with a northwest wind 5 to 12 kts. Winds turn south thru tonight
into Saturday but speeds remain light (under 10 kts). Skies
sunny. As NBM temps have been too cool on the max T did agree
with surrounding offices in throwing in some NBM 75 percentile
temps in there to boost temps a couple degrees over strict NBM
this afternoon and again on Saturday. RH today down around 30
percent but winds not a factor and thus fire weather issues not
a concern.


...Sunday-Monday and beyond...
500 mb short wave moving east-northeast from southern Alberta
into central Saskatchewan into central Manitoba Sun night thru
Monday night will push a surface cold front east thru the area
Monday. Ahead of it for Sunday afternoon about 30-35 kts at 925
mb will be able to mix down central into northeast ND. Warm day
with highs in the low to mid 80s. May well be out last 80
degrees highs for most areas this year.

Monday windy west winds with 925 mb winds 45 kts so potential
for advisory level winds. Cooler as well. With upper low and
sfc low in central Manitoba chance for showers into our area
will be limited to only areas along the Canadian border. And
that is a low chance.

Rest of the week will be dry but temperatures closer to early
October normals. Coolest airmass moves in Thursday with a risk
of lows below 36 degrees in the 20-40 percent range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Clear blue and 22 today and tomorrow. A high pressure system
moves over us today and into tonight keeping all taf sites VFR
through the TAF period. Winds will be predominantly from the
north at 10 knots and becoming variable tonight at 5 knots or
less. Tomorrow winds will be from the south between 10 to 15
knots as this area of high pressure moves further east.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...MM