589
FXUS63 KFGF 010450
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a low chance for a strong thunderstorm to move into
  the Devils Lake basin late tonight.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday afternoon and evening across much of the forecast area,
  with a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms along
  and south of Interstate 94.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  through mid week. A system may then bring numerous showers and
  thunderstorms to parts of the Northern Plains on Independence
  Day, with a low chance for severe thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Mid-level warm air advection continues to propagate through the
region with isolated showers resulting. 00z BIS sounding
indicated decent instability with a parcel lifted from around
750mb, but also decent capping, so do not expect much more than
isolated showers until the better forcing from the west arrives
tomorrow morning. GLM is indicating lightning every now and
again.

UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Starting to see more initiation on radar, but for now these look
to be mainly showers with no lightning seen on GLM or otherwise.
Forecast remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Clouds are pushing in from our west, but the area we are
monitoring for precipitation is further west in Montana. No
changes to the forecast, forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...Synopsis...
Brief 500mb ridging passes through the FA tonight, as the next
700mb shortwave pushes into northwest North Dakota on its heels.
On Tuesday, it appears there will multiple waves across the
Northern Plains around the parent 700mb low over central
Manitoba. These various waves will pass through the FA until
Tuesday night, when the low finally pushes into Ontario. There
should be somewhat of a break on Wednesday, before the next wave
arrives for Thursday into Friday morning.

...Late tonight...
Storms are expected to fire over eastern Montana this evening,
then congeal into a complex that should reach the Montana and
western North Dakota border around 06z Monday. By that point, a
low level jet of 40 to 50 knots should help sustain it as it
moves east-northeast through sunrise. There is also decent 0-6km
effective shear (40 to 50 knots as well), but overall
instability should weaken as these storms reach the Devils Lake
region late. The HREF still doesn`t show any UH tracks across
North Dakota with these storms (they all remain in Montana).
Despite that, SPC hasn`t changed their outlook area, which
shows a marginal risk for severe storms across the western
Devils Lake region (and western North Dakota). Since we have
been messaging a low chance for a strong storm, see no reason to
change that.

...Monday afternoon and evening...
Parameters get pretty muddy for this period. Per the paragraph
above, a weakening convective complex should be moving into
eastern North Dakota (and more so northeast North Dakota) Monday
morning. Therefore there will be extensive cloud cover across
the FA to start the day. Moisture values will only increase,
with surface dewpoints rising into the low to mid 60s along and
west of the Valley, and precipitable water values climbing over
1.50 inches. However, the main surface features look like they
will remain over the western Dakotas, closer to the main 700mb
wave. Despite that, the low level jet looks like it will flare
up again during the day hours, and even strengthen to 50 to 55
knots along and east of the Valley. Overall, this looks pretty
disjointed. Models are showing it remaining cloudy, with the
clouds actually lowering in height during the day, so good
instability would be lacking. Once again, any sustained UH
tracks per the HREF stay to the west and south of this FA. Other
than being cloudy, Monday looks windy as well, and would remain
on the cool side.

...Mid week...
As mentioned above, another good 700mb shortwave looks to cross
through the Northern Plains Thursday into Friday morning. The
highest precipitation chances may arrive Thursday afternoon and
evening, putting a damper on July 4th activities. This is still
a good 4 days out, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Gusty winds from the south during the day on Monday. Ceilings
will lower into MVFR and eventually IFR in some locations on
Monday, but not until afternoon or even the evening. Scattered
storms on Monday, but confidence in location not high enough
yet to include, although trends are that most sites will
experience at least brief periods of thunder, mainly later
afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AH/TG
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...AH