161
FXUS63 KFGF 231756
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less than 20% chance for patchy frost in west central and
  northern Minnesota this morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Getting a few radar returns moving into the Devils Lake basin,
but no signs of anything reaching the ground yet. Best chances
of anything reaching the ground are with the higher
reflectivities west of Minot. Adjusted clouds a bit, but overall
a breezy but low impact day still seems likely.

UPDATE
Issued at 947 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Made a few minor tweaks to cloud cover, and hourly temp, but
otherwise no major changes to the going forecast. Still
expecting a few showers later on this afternoon and tonight,
although with upstream obs showing a whopping 0.02 of rain,
impacts look pretty minimal.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Temperatures have remain in the 50s in ND and the 40s to 50s in
northwestern Minnesota overnight. the coldest areas are in
Hubbard, Wadena, and Beltrami counties where temps dropped to
the upper 30s. Clouds continue to move across the area helping
to keep the temperatures from dropping further. Winds will be on
the increase this morning, with gusts up to 30mph possible this
afternoon in the Red River Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Synopsis...

Large area of cloud cover continues to translate through North
Dakota and Minnesota this morning. Areas that saw clearing earlier
this morning have had temperatures drop to the upper 30s, but as
soon as cloud cover moved in temperatures start to rebound into the
40s. These clouds are ahead of an approaching shortwave moving in
from Canada. Northwesterly flow continues across the region through
Tuesday, with the introduction of a short wave moving through this
afternoon and into Tuesday morning. Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to
build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions
out for the week.

...Patchy Frost...

Areas that are experiencing clearing this morning have had
temperatures drop down into the upper 30s. These ares are located in
a corridor from Beltrami county through Wadena county. Current
observations have these areas hovering in the upper 30s, with the
potential for isolated locations dropping into the mid 30s. These
areas could see patchy frost this morning but confidence is low as
clouds are moving into these areas helping to rebound temperatures.
We are already starting to see this in Bemidji, where temperatures
have already jumped up into the mid 40s this morning. None the less
there is still a less than 20% chance a few isolated spots see
patchy frost this morning in west central and northern Minnesota.

As we progress through Monday a shortwave moves down from Canada
bringing scattered showers to the area this afternoon through
Tuesday morning. The main instability axis remains west of the area,
with less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE in the Devils Lake Basin. This
means any thunderstorm chance will be little to none for the area
this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Probabilities of seeing
higher than 0.10 inches of QPF are 40-50% for the Devils Lake Basin
and 20-40% for the Red River Valley. Anything over 0.30 inches is
less than 10% for the region.

Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with
temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into
the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry
as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that
by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of
October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool
down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with some scattered
showers moving in later this evening. Have mostly VCSH and no
vis impacts on the airports at this point as it seems rain is
very light. Winds will shift from a breezy southerly direction
this afternoon to a more southwesterly to westerly direction
overnight, then northwesterly at least on the ND side of the Red
River by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR/Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...JR