482
FXUS63 KFGF 261840
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
140 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind Advisory for northern Red River valley for this afternoon
  for sustained south winds up to 30 mph and gusts over 40 mph.

- Near critical fire weather conditions due to wind and low RH
  for much of eastern ND.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Winds are increasing as forecast, already gusting up in the 30s
to mid 40s mph. RH values are already near 30%, and with a
little more daytime heating expected, these RH values should
decrease further into the mid 20s, particularly in northwest MN
into southeast ND. Thus, near critical fire weather conditions
are coming to fruition.

UPDATE Issued at 1004 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Latest morning 12Z guidance still illustrates very similar
evolution today regarding temperatures, wind, and dew points.
Will continue to message dry, warm, and gusty winds
contributing to near critical fire weather conditions expected
by this afternoon.

UPDATE
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Skies clear across the area. Forecast in good shape and no
changes. South winds will increase as expected and continued
focus on the north valley for highest winds today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb ridge in place today then ridge gets pushed east and 500
mb flow becomes more zonal Friday into next week but heights
remain higher than climatologically normal with main upper
level jet well north of the border. This will generally mean
continued above normal temps, though not as warm as today, and
mainly dry weather. Only exception will be a brief cool down
Tuesday behind a cold front as temps may drop to a few degrees
below normal.


...Today...

500 mb ridge will be over the area today with peak 925/850 mb
temps into south central into eastern ND this aftn. Gusty
south-southeast winds today, with 45 kts at 925 mb over the far
north valley and 50kts in Winnipeg area. This will not all mix
down today, but MOS guidance indicates sustained winds in the
25-28 kt range this aftn for HCO and GFK and surrounding areas
in the north Red River valley and that does seem reasonable and
follows along climatology in these situations. Temperatures out
performed NBM by several degrees Wednesday but winds were more
west or southwest. Today a more south-southeast wind which
typically isnt as a warm, but such warm air aloft and knowing
NBM temps have been a bit cool of late suggests going on the
higher side of NBM closer to 75 percentile, esp in the valley
and eastern ND.

With high temps in the 80s and keeping dew pts a bit lower than
model blend guidance due to mixing in the lowest layers gives
min RH values in the upper 20s to low 30s percent range across
southeast and east central ND into northwest MN. Will continue
mentioning near critical fire weather conditions in SE into east
central ND. Hold off in MN due to as winds in lowest RH areas
not quite as strong. In E ND there is a 20 percent chance of red
flag conditions if RH can drop lower.

...Beyond Today...

Weak cold front moves through tonight, dry, with minimal clouds.
Sunny on Friday with a light northwest wind and temps cooler
than today, but still a good 5-10 degrees or more above normal.

Warmer air will return northward as heights rise aloft to the
northwest est of the remains of Helene. So weekend looks warm
and dry. Light winds on Saturday but south winds gusting 25 mph
on Sunday with RH values back into the low-mid 30s.

Brief colder air shot early next week, but differences exist on
how much cooling. Overall consensus is to have cooling brief and
not quite a good setup for frost. If any frost would be possible
it would be Tuesday night in NW MN. But using NBM chances for
temps Tues night below 36 are in the 15-25 pct range.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Gusty winds and LLWS will be main hazards within the TAF period.
Southerly winds 20-35kt will remain over our area through 00Z.
After 00Z, winds will decrease to around 10-15kt ahead of an
incoming front. This front will move west to east across the
region between 00Z-12Z shifting winds out of the south ahead of
the front to out of the west behind the front.

After 00Z and ahead of the front, LLWS can be expected mainly
within Minnesota through 10Z, with 45kt to 2kft forecast at KTVF
and KBJI. After 10Z, the front will help shift LLWS potential
out of our area into central MN.

Otherwise, confident VFR conditions are forecast throughout the
TAF period. Such dry air mass over the region will help limit
fog potential, with fog not anticipated tonight/Friday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ007-008-016-
     026-027-029-030-054.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...CJ