Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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279 FXUS63 KFGF 252320 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms over the Devils Lake basin Thursday evening. Another low chance for severe weather to end the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Continuing to see the chance for some isolated convection in the northern Valley with rain moving southeast from Manitoba. SSCRAM is currently showing a 5% risk for >1 inch should a supercell form in this elevated CAPE environment with eff shear of 40+ knots. Main threat time 7pm to 10pm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...Synopsis... Currently clouds are closing in on Eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota from the north and south. Synoptically speaking, the main pattern is quasi-zonal, but numerous troughs and ridges will be traversing the area in the forecast period. That being said, there are multiple chances for precipitation the next 7 days. Temperatures will have the chance to slightly recover over the next week, but will likely stay in the upper 70s. ...Tonight... Tonight, an area of precipitation is expected to move south from Canada into North Dakota. There could be some stray thunderstorms with these showers, but not expecting anything strong or severe. HREF guidance shows strong probability for elevated showers in our area this evening into Wednesday morning. ...Thursday/Friday Rain Chances... To end the week, a more organized trough will move into the northern plains starting Thursday. The main severe threat is in central and western North Dakota, but the Devils Lake Basin is under a marginal risk for severe weather on Thursday (level 1 out of 5). The warm sector is in central and western North Dakota during the afternoon Thursday, but this area will slide east into eastern North Dakota according to guidance. Hazards right now look to be quarter sized hail and 60 MPH wind gusts in the Devils Lake Basin on Thursday. However, as the forcing associated with the trough moves south and east, we could see a secondary threat of severe weather on Friday. This will be pretty conditional on if we can get some daytime heating or if the clouds win over. Regardless, this system has the potential to be a decent rainmaker for the area. WSUP probabilities for >0.5 inches of QPF in 24 hours (ending Friday night) are 60 - 80% for areas along and north of HWY-2, and 40 - 60% south of HWY-2. Once you increase probabilities to >1", the chances lower to 40 - 60% in the northern Devils Lake Basin to the international border. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A few showers are expected to move south across the intl border with some isolated thunderstorms near TAF sites from 8PM to 3AM. Gusty north/Northwest winds at most sites through the overnight ending around sunrise at 10Z with gusts as high as the low 20s yet this evening before tempering back to the upper teens for the rest of the night. MVFR ceilings with the shower activity with ceilings lifting and breaking up around the same time winds diminish early Wednesday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...AH AVIATION...TT