Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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662 FXUS63 KFGF 190453 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1153 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Potential for a few isolated strong to severe storms in south central North Dakota Sunday afternoon. && UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Skies are clear and winds are diminishing quickly. This is all within the forecast and no changes needed to sky grids and updated wind grids for latest data. UPDATE Issued at 712 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Winds are diminishing and well below any advisory/warning criteria. Winds will be under 10 mph after midnight. Skies are mainly clear with disspating CU and will remain clear til late tonight before high clouds move in from the west. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 ...Synopsis... While minor differences exist through the next 4-5 days ensembles generally show our current zonal flow with upper troughing in the in Alberta and Manitoba breaking down as the upper troughing digs south with embedded shortwaves rotating out of strengthening southwest flow aloft. This will result in a progressive surface pattern with highs in the 60s to low 70s and thunderstorm chances through early next week. The vort max along the Canadian border will continue to produce gusts of 60+ mph this afternoon with an NDAWN recently recording a wind gust to 60 mph as deep mixing and steep lapse rates to 3km have been able to tap into 40+kt flow at 850mb. As the low tracks east winds will subside especially with the loss of heating around 7-9pm. Clear skies tonight on the back side of the low with SW flow aloft bringing another shortwave into the area by Sunday afternoon. On Some guidance shows a window for isolated strong or severe thunderstorms (primary threat large hail) south of 1-94. BL Td`s increasing and steepening mid lapse rates are shown to contribute to instability in the 1000-1500 J/KG range while effective shear could be in the 40-50kt range. Due to the high variation in surface pattern (frontal zone may not set up this far northeast) and storm coverage could remain more sparse. Worth monitoring though. could see scattered areas receive over 0.25" with any storms that do develop. Continuing into Monday night/Tuesday another wave ejects east out the upper trough and begins to deepen in the into a surface low in South Dakota bringing warm air advection and possible fgen into southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Probs for over 1" are around 30 percent in these areas. progressive rounds of showers and storms will then continue through the week into next weekend with zonal to southwest flow aloft and shortwave activity persisting. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR into Sunday, but potential for MVFR or IFR conditions in vsbys in showers or t-storms late Sunday aftn or Sunday evening. Otherwise skies clear overnight with increasing mid clouds Sun AM and thickening and gradually lowering ceilings into the aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...TT AVIATION...Riddle