018
FXUS63 KFGF 140355
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of wildfire smoke will degrade air quality later
  this afternoon into evening in northeast North Dakota into
  northwest and west-central Minnesota.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms both Monday
  and Tuesday afternoons. The main hazards will be gusty winds,
  hail, and flash flooding.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Already seeing some showers out north of Minot this evening
which will eventually work east mainly affecting areas north of
HWY 2. Up to a 1/10th possible tonight with a few rumbles of
thunder. No severe expected. Continue to tweak the location of
smoke as new data flows in. Probably looking at pockets of a
tenth to quarter inch for those that see thunderstorms in the
next 24 hours with others seeing nothing.

UPDATE
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Smoke continues to sag south this evening covering much of
northwest Minnesota north of HWY 2 now. This will remain the
main impact overnight into tomorrow with no significant forecast
changes. The AQA was extended through 6pm tomorrow for all of
northwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Surface trough axis/weak frontal boundary has pushed through the
central CWA, but will wash out and redevelop further north
tonight into tomorrow. Flow becomes more zonal for the start of
the work week, with another shortwave pushing the frontal
boundary back south Tuesday. Broad troughing over the north
central CONUS will bring cooler than average temps and
push most of the instability south of our region through mid to
late week. Some return flow possible by next Sunday.

...Another round of Canadian wildfire smoke arriving...

Satellite loop continues to show band of smoke near the Canadian
border behind the weak front, with visibility down to 3-6SM for
the most part although a couple of obs have been down to 2
miles. The HRRR smoke model as well as Canadian runs have this
area of smoke moving down through all but our far southwestern
counties this evening before shifting east overnight. EPA
sensors do not seem as poor as they were yesterday on air
quality, but smoke is still noticeable and will continue to
mention and message. Smoke should not be as much of an issue
tomorrow as front moves north and south winds return.

...Marginal risk Monday and again Tuesday...

The weak front lifts north toward the Canadian border tomorrow,
and strengthens with some fairly warm and moist air coming into
our southern counties. Joint probabilities for CAPE over 1500
J/kg and deep layer shear over 30 kts are greater than 60
percent along and south of Highway 200. There is also a 30 to 40
percent probability of the same near the Highway 2 corridor, on
account of the uncertainty with placement of the front. Most of
the afternoon convection on Monday looks to fire to our west
closer to the upper trough digging in, but some storms could
sustain themselves eastward into Monday night as the low level
jet gets going. Hail to ping pong balls and winds to 70 mph are
not out of the question. By Tuesday, the frontal boundary will
be moving back to the southeast, with instability mainly over
far southeastern ND into west central MN. Much will depend on
how Monday night plays out, but there is a chance for some
isolated severe impacts in our southeast on Tuesday also.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

VFR tonight will ceiling gradually dropping Monday evening
towards MVFR with smoke impacts at GFK, TVF, and BJI through
Monday morning. Some overnight showers and isolated thunder may
occasionally impact GFK and TVF but trends show things mainly
staying north. Winds pick up around noon Monday with gusts near
20kts and thunderstorm activity/coverage increasing after 18z
for all and thus the prevailing VCTS/TSRA at all sites by 00z
tomorrow. Overall aside from thunder no strict category changes
expected.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT