Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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116 FXUS63 KFGF 281940 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 240 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A band of rain will move from west to east across the FA Thursday into Thursday night, although anticipated rainfall amounts look a little lower now && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The last 700/500mb shortwave is rotating southward through Minnesota this afternoon, with scattered showers across most of the state (mostly east of this FA). Ridging builds in behind this wave for tonight through Wednesday night. This is followed by a parade of short waves again, with the next one Thursday into Thursday night. The band of clouds teetering between MVFR/VFR this afternoon remains pretty thick along and north of Interstate 94. Think this will remain thick into the late afternoon/early evening, while the edges will begin to thin. Not sure how fast or if these thicker clouds will decrease this evening. Because of this lingering cloud cover and the fact that dewpoints are still in the mid 40s, don`t feel any spot will see frost tonight. There may be some cumulus development again Wednesday afternoon, but nothing like today. This will allow temperatures to return to more normal late May highs. Have been watching the evolution of the next wave for Thursday into Thursday night for a number of days now. It continues to look like a line of showers, with possibly some embedded thunder, moving from west to east across the FA. Any stronger convection is not expected, which will tend to limit precipitation amounts to the lower end. There is also nothing immediately behind it, so once it moves through that is it. For those reasons, confidence is increasing that precipitation amounts will be on the lower side. The NBM today shows about a 60 percent probability for amounts greater than 0.25 inches along the Canadian border to about an 80 percent probability along the South Dakota border. Probabilities for amounts greater than 0.50 inches have lowered quite a bit, ranging from 15 percent along the Canadian border to 40 percent along the South Dakota border. After this rolls through, zonal flow continues, with a parade of waves anticipated again. Other waves (with associated precipitation chances) are possible Friday night/Saturday morning, Sunday/Sunday night, and Tuesday. Since these additional waves are still so far off, confidence in saying much more at that at this point is difficult. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 The main aviation impact will be within the first 6 hours, and it is due to the MVFR ceilings out there. Really only expect another 1 to 2 hours of these ceilings of BKN-OVC025-030 until they rise above 3000 feet. The steady north-northwest winds will quickly decrease this evening, then turn around to the S-SE Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the cumulus out there now will begin to thin by late afternoon, before clearing out in the evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon