321
FXUS63 KFGF 031458
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
958 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight
  into Tuesday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for
  severe storms across the far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon,
  with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts
  up to 60 mph.

- Gusty winds and scattered showers are anticipated Wednesday
  into Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Fog is gradually diminishing this morning, with some lingering
areas of fog near central North Dakota still half a mile or
lower. All areas of fog are forecast to completely diminish by
noon.

Stratus is lingering a bit longer than previously forecast, and
may extend into the afternoon before becoming more scattered
cumulus.

UPDATE
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Extended the Dense Fog Advisory to 9am as visibilities are still
bouncing between 1/4 and 3/4 statute miles for most areas.
Hopefully by 9am the sun will have burned off enough fog by
then. CAM guidance shows the first wave of precipitation to hit
the devils lake basin by 06z tonight. Otherwise forecast still
remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...Synopsis...
The 700/500mb shortwave that brought the severe weather to
portions of the FA yesterday is sliding east of the FA quickly
early this morning. Some fog and stratus will linger in the
clearing through the early morning hours, mainly along and west
of the Red River Valley (but potentially across west central
Minnesota as well). There will be a bit of break before the next
wave pushes from west to east across the FA late tonight into
Tuesday. Elongated low pressure will then set up just north and
northeast of the FA from Wednesday into Thursday, which will set
the stage for gusty winds and scattered showers (more so during
the late morning through afternoon hours).

...Late Monday night into Tuesday...
A steady consistent signal remains for the next shortwave
during this period. As mentioned at this time yesterday, and it
continues now, the probabilities for the higher amounts of
precipitation with this wave look better across the northern
half of the FA. However, even the southern half should see
precipitation. The NBM shows a 90 percent probability for
rainfall amounts greater than 0.25 inches along the Canadian
border to about a 60 percent probability along the Dakotas
border (in this FA). As amounts go up to 1 inch or more, the
probabilities drop to about 50 percent for the Devils Lake
region and northern Red River Valley, to less than 10 percent
along the Dakotas border.

SPC has backed up the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
into our far eastern FA Tuesday afternoon, barely brushing a
Baudette to Bemidji to Staples line. This is a highly
conditional threat, all depending on the frontal timing and
whether any instability can develop across this area by the
afternoon. The 00z CAMs may be a bit slower on the timing of the
front, but it appears there will be a lot of clouds and
potentially morning showers/weaker storms even across this area,
limiting the amount of instability that could develop in the
afternoon. One HREF member shows a few UH tracks possible over
our far eastern FA during the afternoon, but most members are
east of the FA, closer to Duluth.

...Wednesday into Thursday...
The 700/500mb low stacks across southern Manitoba during this
period, potentially extending all the way into the Great Lakes.
Scattered showers and gusty winds are possible both days, but
mainly during the late morning through afternoon hours. With
cold temperatures aloft, any morning sun should result in fairly
quick late morning cumulus development. Not anticipating
widespread rainfall, but much more showery/spotty with lower end
amounts (high probabilities for less than 0.10 inches).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Dense fog and low cloud decks have been affecting most of TAF
sites resulting in IFR conditions this morning. By 15z we should
start to see the cloud decks start to lift and visibilities
expand into the MVFR/VFR categories. By 0600z Tuesday the first
wave of precipitation is expected to reach KDVL with the rest of
the TAF sites seeing that wave after 12z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...MM