596
FXUS63 KFGF 270435
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across a
  portion of eastern North Dakota Thursday evening.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms across
  the region Friday afternoon and evening.

&&


UPDATE
Issued at 958 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Cloud cover continues to diminish across the area this evening.
Temperatures are gradually falling into the upper 50s as of this
update, with the forecast remaining on track. Winds are light
and variable.

UPDATE
Issued at 706 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The forecast remains on track this evening with mid level
cloud cover remaining across portions of the area. Look for
gradually clearing as we head through the evening and overnight
hours, with overall quiet weather expected. Temperatures are in
the 60s across much of the area, with generally light north to
northwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...Synopsis...

Ensemble guidance in good agreement indicating the progressive upper
level pattern continuing through the period - with uncertainties
surrounding exact track, strength, and timing of upper waves within
this flow. The main concern will be severe potential for each
disturbance that affects the region. Temperatures will fluctuate
through the period depending on timing of waves and placement of the
region in the warm or cold sector of each disturbance.

For tonight, surface ridging continues to build into the region and
still anticipate cloud cover to break, leading to a mostly clear and
calm overnight which would allow temperatures to fall into the 40s
most areas.


...Severe Risk Thur Evening/Overnight...

Water vapor imagery shows the next disturbance crashing the PAC
NW coast. Anticipate mid-level warm air advection ahead of this
feature leading to scattered showers/thunder Thursday
afternoon, with more widespread coverage overnight along with
strong 850mb WAA associated with a stronger low level jet. With
that said, strength of the low level jet and degree of
instability is uncertain, with most guidance indicating very
weak instability along with a weaker low level jet, which would
lead to mainly showers with isolated thunder. SPC indicates the
marginal risk for severe severe storms west of the valley, which
makes sense given the most likely scenario of a less favorable
severe environment as the forcing enters eastern ND. A low
probability scenario does exists for a more favorable severe
environment (stronger low level jet and greater instability) as
indicated by a minority of ensemble guidance. Storms would be
elevated, so not much of a tornado threat.

...Severe Risk Fri Afternoon/Evening...

Ensemble guidance shows a variety of scenarios for the track
and strength of the upper low as it propagates near the
International border, which will have consequences for placement
of deformation zone precipitation, cloud cover and ultimately
degree of instability as cold front propagates through the
region Friday afternoon. SPC indicates a marginal risk for
severe storms, which would be a greater risk if predictability
increases for clearing and greater instability. Deep layer bulk
shear would be sufficient for organized convection.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mid level stratus persists in the vicinity of KDVL, but is
expected to gradually clear by around 10Z. VFR conditions then
prevail through the remainder of the morning hours, with
increasing cloud cover during the afternoon. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected to work into the area
through the evening hours, then persist overnight. Went with the
mention of VCSH for now until confidence increases regarding
onset timing of better rain and thunderstorm coverage. Winds
shift to the southeast by mid morning, then increase heading
into the afternoon with gusts approaching 25 knots.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...Lynch