Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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478 FXUS63 KFGF 122322 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon in northwest Minnesota. All hazards possible with up to 2" hail, wind to 70mph, and isolated tornadoes. - There is a 15 percent probability of another round of severe thunderstorms on Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Strongest storms in west central MN have moved into NE MN and central MN this evening. We continue to monitor the storms up in Cavalier, Pembina, and Kittson counties as strong surface vorticity is noted along with MLCAPE. In southeastern ND we are starting to loose the heat and instability this evening limiting further development for that area. Northern MN is currently seeing the atmosphere stabilize slowly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...Synopsis... Main upper wave still over southern Saskatchewan, with surface low over the central Red River Valley. Starting to get some towering cumulus clouds in portions of our CWA, although anvils have quickly been orphaned. Still, getting some ML CAPE up into the 1500-2000 J/kg range, and effective shear is around 40 to 50 kts. Special sounding from UND in Grand Forks had fairly dry in the low layers, and this fits with surface obs that have been mostly in the 50s on the ND side of the river. This does not rule out the formation of supercell thunderstorms that could produce hail 2 inches or larger however, and there will be a severe thunderstorm watch coming out shortly. Winds up to 70 mph and even an isolated tornado not out of a question, but continue to think hail will be the main threat. The cells will move quickly off into central MN during the later part of the evening after 00Z. A second shortwave will be digging into MN during the day tomorrow, with some additional showers and thunderstorms in the far north and northwestern portions of the CWA. A few of the ensemble members have CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg tomorrow afternoon as this shortwave comes through, but that is well above the ensemble mean of 500 J/kg. Think we will see some thunder chances, but at this point think probabilities of severe will be less than 5 percent. Upper ridging will move into the Plains then transition to southwesterly flow for Friday and into the weekend. Some precipitation chances with weak ridge riding shortwaves, but predictability is low for any impacts other than rainfall as destabilization is uncertain and shear is not impressive. Better shear on Monday as stronger southwesterly flow sets up and a surface boundary arrives over the Northern Plains. Type of impacts are still uncertain, but there is a 15 percent chance for severe storms to develop for the start of the work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Isolated strong storms continue to move along the International Border in Pembina, Cavalier, and Kittson counties this hour. These should remain away from the TAF sites. BJI and TVF continue to see the chance for isolated stronger storms through 4z. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear with a FEW to SCT clouds in the mid levels. Winds will turn toward the west by the morning, with increased gusts in DVL, TVF, FAR, and GFK 16-19z through the end of the TAF period. Winds gusts may reach 25kts during the afternoon tomorrow. Isolated chance for thunderstorms once again tomorrow afternoon around 20-22z for BJI and TVF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Spender DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Spender