Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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615 FXUS65 KFGZ 250538 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1038 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday or Thursday. Activity will slowly decrease and become more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Convection is winding down this evening, but pockets of instability exist that will keep a few thunderstorms developing for the next hour or so, especially over Yavapai County. Without any external support, expect only a few isolated showers overnight. Another round of convection is expected on Tuesday, which should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to much of northern Arizona. Current forecast is in good shape - a few minor updates were made to catch the evolution of the evening convection. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 25/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. Expect SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA from 18Z Tue until 03Z Wed, with localized MVFR/IFR conditions. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/06Z through Friday 28/06Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions and light winds. SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA AND ISOLD +TSRA 19Z-03Z Wed and Thurs will produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm activity shifts primarily east of the I-17 corridor by Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue each day. Light winds will prevail, with stronger winds driven by thunderstorm outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Min RHs ranging from 20 to 40 percent, with good overnight recoveries. Thursday through Saturday...Most of the central and western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day. Minimum RH will range from 25-35% on Thursday and Friday, but decrease to 15-25% by Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...BAK/Peterson AVIATION...BAK FIRE WEATHER...BAK For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff