Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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659 FXUS65 KFGZ 191129 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 429 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures remain through Saturday, before warmer temperatures return next week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms to the area late Friday into Saturday, with otherwise dry conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Arizona is sandwiched between a strengthening trough to the west just off the Califorina Coast and high pressure to the east over Texas and northern Mexico. With the increased pressure gradient, southerly flow looks to increase over Arizona, keeping breezy conditions around. However, winds should remain largely i n the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures should also be a bit warmer this afternoon, but still remaining slightly below normal. Friday through Saturday...As the aforementioned low ejects off the Pacific and moves into southern California. As this occurs, the increased southerly flow should be enough to advect some moisture northward into northern Arizona. To what extent is still uncertain, but latest guidance has trended towards an increase in precipitation chances over the past 24 hours. As the low continues to move eastward, an area of frontogenetic forcing should allow for a period of banded showers moving across northern Arizona starting Friday evening and into Saturday morning. The only question is how much moisture this forcing will have to work with. 700 mb temperatures look to dip down to around +2C in the core of the low, so snow levels look to be high enough for all rain across much of the area. However, snow levels may dip down enough for the first snow across the mountains tops above 10,000 feet. Sunday through Wednesday...Heights rise behind the departing trough, and high pressure largely builds over Arizona. Rising temperatures and dry conditions follow suit into the start of next week. Model guidance does have a shortwave trough dropping southward through the Rockies sometime next week, but given the track, the system will be fairly moisture starved and any sensible impacts will be limited to some breezier northeasterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...Thursday 19/12Z through Friday 20/12Z...Expect VFR conditions. Light wind overnight, becoming SW 10-20 kts gusting to 25-30kts from 18Z-02Z. OUTLOOK...Friday 20/12Z through Sunday 22/12Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT-SHRA Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. ISOLD -TSRA. Winds SW 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts 18Z-02Z Friday. Winds shifting W-NW and decreasing Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry weather continues today with seasonable temperatures and afternoon southwest wind 15 to 25 mph. A chance of showers will develop over western Coconino and Yavapai counties late Friday morning with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph. The chance for showers will spreads eastward through Friday night. Saturday through Monday...Cooler with a chance of showers lingering north of I-40 Saturday. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph Saturday afternoon. West to north winds on Sunday and Monday as a warming and drying trend develops. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff