Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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122 FXUS65 KFGZ 181703 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1003 AM MST Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions continue for the rest of this week. Only a slight chance of showers for late Friday and Saturday over northern Arizona, but mostly dry conditions otherwise. A benign and warmer weather pattern develops for next week. && .UPDATE...A cold morning was observed across the north country with the low temperature reaching 27 degrees here in Bellemont and 30 up at the Grand Canyon. After the cold start, a mild day is in store. Daytime temperatures will remain about 5 degrees below normal. Typical southwest afternoon breezes from 15 to 25 mph can be expected. Some cloud cover this morning across central and eastern Arizona is expected to mix out and dissipate by midday, with otherwise mostly sunny skies. The forecast is in good shape with no morning updates planned. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/...There are two areas of low pressure over the western part of the US this morning. One low is over Montana and Wyoming. This is the low that brought windy conditions over northern Arizona on Monday. Another low is quickly following on the first`s heels and is currently just along the coast near the OR/CA border. The second low will move south along the coast reaching the LA Basin by Thursday afternoon before moving east to the Las Vegas area by Friday afternoon. The low will weaken and eject to the Four Corners area by mid-day Saturday. A ridge will then build over the Great Basin and extend southwestward well in into the Pacific through Tuesday. This pattern will bring daily south to southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range, followed by crisp and cool nights as the winds decrease. As the low transitions across Arizona later this week and into the weekend, a few light showers may develop. Additionally, high temperatures will dip a few degrees below average. High temperatures will warm to above average as high pressure returns next week, for a early fall warm-up. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 18/18Z through Thursday 19/18Z...Widespread VFR conditions persist through the period with mostly clear skies. Expect south to southwest winds, 10-25 kts, this afternoon becoming variable under 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/18Z through Saturday 21/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through Saturday. Mostly clear sky conditions are forecast for Thursday into Friday, becoming SCT low to mid-level clouds for Friday night into Saturday. BKN cloud cover along with slight chances for -SHRA are forecast on Friday along and northwest of a P23-KFLG-KPGA line. Conditions improve on Saturday. Expect southwest winds, 15-25 kts, each afternoon, shifting to the northwest on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry conditions with seasonably cool temperatures. Daytime winds southwest 15 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming light and variable overnight. Friday through Sunday...Seasonably cool temperatures continue through Saturday, with temperatures rising on Sunday. Breezy southwest winds on Friday, becoming light from the north for the weekend. Mainly dry conditions, outside of a slight chance for showers over far northern Arizona on Friday and Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT/MAS AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff