002
FXUS65 KFGZ 230316
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
816 PM MST Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather with increasing temperatures
through the week ahead. Light and variable winds expected each
day.

&&

.UPDATE...Cumulus buildups over the higher terrain this afternoon
have dissipated with mostly clear skies at 8 PM. A few of these
buildups actually produced some light rain showers, including
around Second Mesa as well as Window Rock. Our warming trend is
still on track to begin tomorrow and last through the coming
weekend, with highs around 10 degrees above seasonal averages by
midweek.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /409 PM MST/...As yesterday`s storm system continues
to pull away from Arizona, a much quieter weather pattern is
taking hold. A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for
the week ahead.

In the wake of the departing upper low, some locally breezy
northeast winds have developed, along with scattered cumulus
clouds over the higher terrain. Temperatures have already climbed
above yesterday`s highs and will continue to warm through the
afternoon. The weather pattern for the upcoming week features a
strong Pacific ridge that builds over the west coast, and then
across the interior west through the rest of the week. Rising
heights and plenty of sunshine will ensure temperatures remain
above average. We expect high temperatures in the low 80s in the
mountains with upper 90s to near 100 in the lowest valleys by the
middle of the week. It looks like we will stay below any records,
but it`s not entirely out of the question. Other than some locally
breezy northeast winds through Tuesday, very light winds are
expected the remainder of the week.

No significant pattern changes are on the horizon for at least the
next week. Enjoy the warm start to fall!

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 23/00Z through Tuesday 24/00Z...Look for VFR
conditions. North to northeast winds 5-15 kts through 01Z and
again after 18Z Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/00Z through Thursday 26/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue with variable winds generally less than 15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Warm and dry weather will
continue with variable winds at 5-15 mph each day. Afternoon RH
values will generally range from 10-20 percent.

Wednesday through Friday...It will remain warm and dry with
variable winds at 5-15 mph. Afternoon RH values from 10-20
percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/MCT
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff