461
FXUS65 KFGZ 250520
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably
warm temperatures and dry conditions in place through the end of
the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Clear skies and light winds across northern Arizona
this evening as high pressure builds over the area. No updates
needed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...Today through Thursday...High
pressure will continue to wobble around the southwest through pretty
much the entire forecast period. As a result, dry conditions with
well above- normal temperatures are expected to continue. Another
night of gusty northeasterly winds is expected downwind of the
terrain, which should moderate overnight temperatures in these
locations.

A weak shortwave undercuts the high over New Mexico and moves
northward across Arizona on Wednesday. A slight increase in moisture
looks possible, but not really enough to produce any precipitation.
Additionally, the increase subsidence from the strengthening high
will act to cap any vertical motion. Thus, the only notable change
will likely just be a few extra clouds Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon.

Friday through Monday...High pressure then shifts westward slightly,
becoming centered and building over Arizona as it remains sandwiched
between a trough just off the California Coast and another over the
Mississippi River Valley. With the high amplified over Arizona, high
temperatures look to be near 10 to 15 degrees F above normal for
this time of year to finish out the week.

Temperatures look to gradually trend by the start of next week as
the high begins to shift once again. However, long-range ensemble
guidance continue to keep dry conditions in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 25/06Z through Thursday 26/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Northeasterly winds each night in favored areas just SW
of higher terrain. Winds for Wednesday turning light S/SE 5-15kts.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/06Z through Saturday 28/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions and light winds, generally less than 15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Well above normal daytime
temperatures and dry conditions. South through southeast winds 5 to
15 mph on Wednesday, becoming a bit more variable on Thursday.
Afternoon minimum RH values 15 to 25 percent.

Friday through Sunday...Well above normal temperatures and continued
dry conditions. Winds variable 5 to 10 mph on Friday, then becoming
southerly over the weekend. Afternoon minimum RH values 10 to 20
percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys/Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff