Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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765 FXUS65 KFGZ 252200 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 300 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday. Activity then slowly decreases and becomes more focused over eastern Arizona by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...The remnants of a well-defined MCV is lurking in the Phoenix area this afternoon, with plenty of action in our CWA. This feature is progged to move into Yavapai County this evening, on a northwesterly track. This could potentially prolong convection later into the night. These features don`t always pan out, especially if moving into a worked-over airmass, but we will need to keep an eye on it. Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our north. This will not be enough to stop another active day, but you may see activity starting to slide eastward, just a bit. From Thursday through Saturday, the northern trough brings much drier mid-level air to our area and the Monsoon moisture boundary will be forced into southeastern Arizona. This will limit activity to southern Apache County, for the most part. Moisture may return heading into next week, but perhaps not as aggressive as what we have seen for the last week. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 25/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, mainly VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 26/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions. From 19Z-03Z Wednesday and Thursday, SCT to NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA will still produce localized MVFR/IFR. Generally light winds outside of storms and storm outflow. Storm activity primarily along and east of the I-17 corridor Thursday, shifting even farther east by Friday. Light winds becoming SW10-20g25kts during the daylight hours for Thursday/Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. On Thursday, the emphasis shifts primarily to the Mogollon Rim northeast and eastward. Winds on Wednesday will mainly be driven by outflows. By Thursday, expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, especially for the central and western zones. Friday through Sunday...Most of the central and western zones become drier, warmer and breezy. Afternoon storm chances continue for the eastern zones, but coverage becomes more isolated. Expect southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, gusts from 20 to 30 mph, each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff