Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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075 FXUS65 KFGZ 240808 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 108 AM MST Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over eastern Arizona towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today...High pressure continues to wobble around the southwest, and with moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms remain. 00Z HREF guidance shows the greatest instability this afternoon along and south of the Mogollon Rim, where around 500-1000 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE are forecast. Thus, more scattered coverage of storms is expected over these areas with only isolated coverage expected elsewhere. Flash flooding looks to be the primary threat with any storms, as precipitable water values remain around 0.80- 1.40 inches and storm motions of around 5-10 kts. A few stronger storms over the higher terrain may be possible, but the threat for any severe weather is limited. Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms look to continue through much of the week, as the monsoonal high remains in place in the southwest. Flash flooding will continue to be a threat each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Moisture begins to wain as a a weak trough sweeps to the north of Arizona. Drier conditions look to ensue for Friday and into much of the weekend. However, the return of dry conditions looks to be short-lived, with moisture slowly creeping back northward. Thus, chances for isolated showers and storms likely return by the end of the weekend for eastern Arizona. && .AVIATION...Monday 24/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...VFR conditions will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will decrease tonight then increase again 18Z to 00Z. Gusty/erratic winds will be likely near storms, but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...SHRA/TSRA chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts. Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are once again expected today and Tuesday. Afternoon winds will likely become influenced by outflows. Stronger storms will bring heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Generally light SW winds during the day, min RHs ranging between 25-45%, and good overnight recoveries. Wednesday through Friday...Afternoon storm chances persist, but coverage becomes more isolated and confined to the higher terrain by Friday. West to southwest winds each day outside of storms at 5-10 mph, increasing Thursday and Friday to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-35 mph. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff