Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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500 FXUS65 KFGZ 230936 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 236 AM MST Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...High levels of moisture, steep lapse rates, and orographic lift are helping keep persistent showers ongoing across parts of Gila County into the White Mountains early this morning. Expect this activity to gradually decrease and become more isolated over the coming hours. Today will feature another round of isolated to scattered monsoonal storms. Compared to previous days, today`s activity will be spread-out with no areas expected to have notably higher concentrations than others. Limited shear and storm motion combined with moderate instability and high PWATS means that overall severe threat will once again be low today, but there is a threat for flash flooding, especially under persistent cells or areas where training develops. The forecast the remainder of the period remains unchanged. Monsoonal moisture input will allow for daily shower and thunderstorm chances until Friday. By the end of the week, a passing trough will shift high pressure over the region east and cutting off moisture input. Thus conditions will become drier going into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/06Z through Monday 24/06Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR and light winds. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds are expected 18Z-03Z. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/06Z through Wednesday 26/06Z...Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 18Z-03Z each day, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Scattered to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Outside of storms, expect southerly winds 10-15 mph, becoming more westerly on Monday. Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek, mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains. Wetting rains are likely with any storms, as well as gusty and erratic outflow winds. Southwest to west winds around 10-15 mph each afternoon, increasing to 15-20 mph on Thursday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...Meola For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff