Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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180 FXUS65 KFGZ 231953 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1253 PM MST Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Daily chances for showers/thunderstorms will continue through much of the week, with activity becoming more focused over eastern Arizona towards the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...It`s been a sluggish start to showers and storms popping up this afternoon, but we are starting to see isolated activity. Recent runs of the U of A WRF show more storm development after 2 PM and continuing into the evening hours, which is consistent with a few other Hi-Res models. There also still seems to be a focus over Coconino County, especially along the Kaibab Plateau. The first lightning strikes of the day were near Jacob Lake, but it`s truly a shot in the dark to try and pin-point exactly where we are going to see storm coverage for the rest of the afternoon/evening. This monsoon pattern will continue through much of the week, with a more typical-monsoon flow (high pressure over the Four Corners) shaping up by mid- week. As a result, expect scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. As we move towards the end of the week/weekend, the previously mentioned monsoon pattern will gradually weaken to a less pronounced west/southwest flow due to a passing trough. This will limit showers/thunderstorms to eastern Arizona, and a few areas across the Mogollon Rim. && .AVIATION...Sunday 23/18Z through Monday 24/18Z...VFR conditions will mostly prevail, outside of brief MVFR conditions in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Chances for showers/storms will be greatest between 18Z-06Z with clearing expected overnight. Gusty/erratic winds will be likely near storms, but otherwise, look for S-SW winds 5-10 kts. OUTLOOK...Monday 24/18Z through Wednesday 26/18Z...SHRA/TSRA chances will continue each afternoon/evening through the outlook period. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible near any given storm. Outside of outflow winds, expect W-SW winds 5-15 kts. Overnight winds will become light and variable. VFR conditions will prevail, minus brief periods of MVFR conditions in heavier storms. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rest of today through Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours tonight, and are expected to return both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Heavy rainfall, small hail, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible with any storm. Outside of storm driven winds, look for southwest winds 5-15 mph. Minimum RH values ranging between 25-45% daily. Wednesday through Friday...Look for daily chances for showers/thunderstorms, but chances will gradually decrease each afternoon. Outside of gusty outflow winds, expect west-southwest winds 10-20 mph. Minimum RH values generally between 25-45%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff