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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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406 FXUS65 KFGZ 161715 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1015 AM MST Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest winds to create critical fire weather conditions both today and Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal today through Wednesday, before warming again late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...A deepening trough over the northwestern United States will affect our area through at least Tuesday. The primary impacts will be dry and windy conditions, as well as with somewhat cooler temperatures. The windiest days will be ahead of the trough axis, today and especially Monday. Winds decrease after that, but will stay breezy through at least Thursday, as remnants of the trough linger over the region. Current RFW products look fine, some zones are marginal at best, we will not make changes this morning. The bottom line is that it has not rained in weeks and any increase in wind speeds combined with our dry boundary layer will lead to dangerous FWX conditions. There is now a distinct possibility that sustained southerly or southwesterly flow, along with a building ridge late this week, will push the Monsoon boundary layer into Arizona by next weekend. This could lead to an outbreak of high-based thunderstorms and hot temperatures, not a good recipe, stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Sunday 16/18Z through Monday 17/18Z...VFR conditions persist through Monday with clear skies. Expect gusty southwest surface winds each afternoon, sustained 15-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts, from ~16Z-03Z. Light and variable winds are anticipated thereafter. OUTLOOK...Monday 17/18Z through Wednesday 19/18Z...VFR conditions prevail through Wednesday with mostly clear skies. Afternoon southwest winds decrease for Tuesday and Wednesday, however remain breezy, 15-25 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warm, very dry, and windy. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of northern Arizona on both afternoons. Daytime southwest winds 15-25, with gusts from 30-40 mph. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15%. Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy conditions with seasonable temperatures. Daytime winds south through southwest 10-20 mph with gusts around 25 mph each day. Afternoon minimum RH values 10-20%. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ104>109-112-115-140. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Monday for AZZ104>107-109>116-139-140. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff