Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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075
FXUS65 KFGZ 292350
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
450 PM MST Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and storms are expected this evening.
Coverage will increase and push westward Sunday into next week as
temperatures remain warm. Drier, hot weather expected by the end
of next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A strong ridge stretches across the southern tier of
states today from the east coast all the way to Arizona. We are on
the western fringe of the ridge which is continuing to allow for
some southerly flow and moisture advection into the region. For
today, the best moisture is in the eastern 1/3 of the state with
some drying noted toward the west. Isolated showers and storms are
still possible as far west as Prescott this afternoon, with higher
coverage east of a Flagstaff to Payson line. The heavy rain/flooding
threat is also lower today, with just a few spots in eastern AZ
possibly seeing some heavier rain.

Sunday through Monday - southerly flow continues with moisture
expected to increase further with scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms at times. Thunderstorm complexes may also
develop over northern Mexico and southern Arizona Sunday
afternoon/evening which could move northward into central and
northern Arizona later Sunday evening into Monday morning. Much of
the guidance now indicates this possibility, and we boosted PoPs
above NBM guidance for this period. Another round of showers and
storms is likely Monday afternoon, though the early morning
activity could keep instability down due to a rain-cooled boundary
layer and clouds limiting daytime heating.

Tuesday through Wednesday - the ridge retreats farther into the
southeast US as another strong ridge over the Pacific shifts
eastward into California. Moisture is forecast to be most
plentiful from the Mogollon Rim southward, with 30-50% chances for
storms each afternoon.

Thursday (4th of July) through Friday - the strong ridge over the
Pacific is forecast to move eastward toward Arizona. This will
result in a warming trend area-wide, and a drying trend at least
from the Mogollon Rim northward. South of the Mogollon Rim,
moisture may linger so that a slight chance of afternoon
convection remains in the forecast for now - that could change
with later guidance. Temperatures are forecast to increase to
several degrees above normal with moderate to high Heat Risk
forecast over the lower elevations of Yavapai Co, Grand Canyon
country, and the Page area.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 30/00Z through Monday 01/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. East of a KPRC-KPGA line,
SCT SHRA/TSRA until around 03Z. Storm coverage will push westward
on Sunday and become more widespread. Thunderstorms may produce
brief MVFR conditions and gusty winds. Otherwise, daytime SW winds
10- 20kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 01/00Z through Wednesday 03/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected away from any TSRA/SHRA. Storms are expected to
continue overnight Sunday night and into the day Monday. SCT to
NMRS SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through this period, and
thunderstorms may produce brief MVFR conditions. Storm activity
decreases Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Away from
thunderstorms or outflows, daytime S-SW winds 5-15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Monday...Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening,
mainly southeast of a Prescott to Flagstaff to Window Rock line.
Storm chances push back north and west Sunday, with a good chance of
rain continuing overnight Sunday into Monday morning and some storm
redevelopment Monday afternoon. Gusty/erratic winds likely near
storms, with daytime southwest wind 10-20 mph outside of storm
activity.

Tuesday through Thursday...Daily chances for shower and thunderstorm
activity continue through Wednesday, with hotter and drier weather
starting Thursday. Winds mainly west to northwest 10-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff