Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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509 FXUS65 KFGZ 191734 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1034 AM MST Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonably cool temperatures remain through Saturday, before warmer temperatures return next week. A cold front will bring a chance for showers and possibly thunderstorms to the area late Friday into Saturday, with otherwise dry conditions expected. && .UPDATE...The mild and breezy weather pattern will continue for northern Arizona today. A few clouds to speak of this morning with a band of high clouds across southeast Arizona and a scattered cumulus field across far western Arizona. The band of high clouds will gradually expand and spread northwest across the area through this afternoon. Otherwise, similar conditions to yesterday with temperatures near to slightly below normal and winds gusting around 25-30 mph. A few tweaks made to the sky cover forecast with no other updates needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /429 AM MST/...Today...Arizona is sandwiched between a strengthening trough to the west just off the Califorina Coast and high pressure to the east over Texas and northern Mexico. With the increased pressure gradient, southerly flow looks to increase over Arizona, keeping breezy conditions around. However, winds should remain largely in the 20-30 mph range. Temperatures should also be a bit warmer this afternoon, but still remaining slightly below normal. Friday through Saturday...The aforementioned low ejects off the Pacific and moves into southern California. As this occurs, the increased southerly flow should be enough to advect some moisture northward into northern Arizona. To what extent is still uncertain, but latest guidance has trended towards an increase in precipitation chances over the past 24 hours. As the low continues to move eastward, an area of frontogenetic forcing should allow for a period of banded showers moving across northern Arizona starting Friday evening and into Saturday morning. The only question is how much moisture this forcing will have to work with. 700 mb temperatures look to dip down to around +2C in the core of the low, so snow levels look to be high enough for all rain across much of the area. However, snow levels may dip down enough for the first snow across the mountains tops above 10,000 feet. Sunday through Wednesday...Heights rise behind the departing trough, and high pressure largely builds over Arizona. Rising temperatures and dry conditions follow suit into the start of next week. Model guidance does have a shortwave trough dropping southward through the Rockies sometime next week, but given the track, the system will be fairly moisture starved and any sensible impacts will be limited to some breezier northeasterly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION...Thursday 19/18Z through Friday 20/18Z...VFR conditions persist through the period with variable cloud cover. Expect south-southwest winds 15-25 kts through 01Z, becoming variable under 10 kts thereafter. OUTLOOK...Friday 20/18Z through Sunday 22/18Z...Cloud cover increases from west to east on Friday with chances for -SHRA and an isolated -TSRA late Friday through Saturday morning. Greatest chances will be along and west of a KPRC-KFLG-KPGA line. Showers cloud linger throughout the day on Saturday near the AZ/UT border. Widespread VFR conditions with SKC returns on Sunday. Anticipate south-southwest winds 15-30 kts on Friday, followed by west- northwest winds 15-25 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Dry weather continues today with seasonable temperatures and afternoon southwest wind 15 to 25 mph. A chance of showers will develop over western Coconino and Yavapai counties late Friday morning with southerly winds 15 to 25 mph. The chance for showers will spreads eastward through Friday night. Saturday through Monday...Cooler with a chance of showers lingering north of I-40 Saturday. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph Saturday afternoon. West to north winds on Sunday and Monday as a warming and drying trend develops. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT/Humphreys AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff