198
FNUS75 KFGZ 260156
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Blue Bell Fire...Forest Service
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
656 PM MST Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MST on June 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Mostly light showers will continue through the rest of
evening and overnight hours. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is
possible tomorrow afternoon, but generally less than a 20% chance. Even
if storms do not develop over the Blue Bell Fire area, gusty/erratic outflow
winds could push through from other areas. Outside of storm-driven winds, expect
mostly southwest winds 5-15 mph. Drier conditions will slowly return through
the end of the week, with minor chances of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms through the day.
Chance of pcpn......10-20 percent.
Max temperature.....95-100 degrees.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest by 11 AM MST near 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Clearing Index......809.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 0 to 5 knots shifting to the west
                    late in the afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......10-15 percent.
Min temperature.....70-75 degrees.
Max humidity........60-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light and variable overnight.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......5.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots decreasing to around 0
                    knots after 3 am.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....95-100 degrees.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Very good.
Clearing Index......999.
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15
                    knots late in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...Forest Service
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416659.1/FGZ
.DELDT 06/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mark.timber@usda.gov