Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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497 FXUS63 KFSD 252258 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 558 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions are expected through the period. Both the GFS and EC Ensemble have a 10 percent chance or lower for a tenth of an inch of rain in any given 24 hour period through 10 days. Above average high temperatures in the 80s are expected through the weekend. - Breezy southerly winds and lowering relative humidity levels may result in elevated fire danger for locations west of the James River on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Strong northerly flow aloft will drift east tonight with upper level ridging building into the area into Thursday. This should lead to milder lows as a light southerly wind develops overnight. Southerly flow at the surface will increase through the day on Thursday, becoming breezy west of I-29. The combination of stronger winds, warm temperatures in the 80s and lower humidity will lead to elevated fire danger in central SD. With fuels still hanging on to some summertime greenness, they are in the process of curing. So while fuels are still green enough to not support widespread fire weather concerns, the next week or two and the lack of precipitation should allow for fairly rapid curing, which may bring about more fire weather concerns the 2nd and 3rd weeks of October if rain remains absent. Thursday night into Saturday upper level ridging remains in place as low pressure combines with the incoming hurricane to develop a blocking pattern to the southeast. This will continue dry weather with above normal temperatures through this period with lows in the 50s and highs in the 80s. On Monday troughiness deepens across Canada and the Northern Rockies as a cold front is expected to swing through the area. This should lead to a fairly windy day with relatively strong cold air advection moving in through midday. Temperatures may also be colder with highs possibly only in the 60s depending upon timing of the front, and along with these stronger winds, it will feel a little chilly after several days in the 80s. Some chance that temperatures top out in the 70s then fall in the afternoon but still far enough out that this is still up in the air. Strong northwest flow aloft will keep cooler conditions locked in on Tuesday with a better chance for highs in the 60s then a likely rebound back to around normal or a bit above on Wednesday. Still little to no precipitation expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions will continue across the area. Taking a look at satellite imagery, clear conditions continue as a weak surface high continues to work its way eastwards. Expect these conditions to continue into the overnight hours as light and variable winds return overnight with the potential for some patchy valley fog. Breezy southerly winds will return by Thursday afternoon mostly along and west of I-29 with gusts up to 30 mph possible to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Gumbs