Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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039 FXUS63 KFSD 031837 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 137 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms move from west to east Tuesday morning with better thunderstorm chances east of I-29 Tuesday afternoon. A couple of the afternoon storms may be strong to severe. - Dry with windy periods Wednesday-Thursday. Lighter winds are expected Friday-Sunday with seasonable temperatures. - Low (20-30%) chances for showers or a few thunderstorms Friday night. Neither severe weather nor heavy rain are expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Tonight: Lead WAA begins to push in from the west and should result in at least isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms by the second half of the overnight. Elevated instability generally less than 1000 J/kg so risk for severe weather is very low but any stronger storms would still carry some risk of small hail. Tuesday: Cold front begins to approach the I-29 corridor by midday and will provide for additional forcing for renewed thunderstorm development as it slides east. Ahead of the front, MLCAPE values between 1-2k J/kg establish and will allow for some stronger updrafts. A limiting factor to more widespread strong/severe activity looks to be deep layer shear with EBWD values generally around or below 30 kts, perhaps lending to more pulsy activity. Marginally severe hail likely the primary risk with perhaps a rogue wind gust with any collapsing storm and pockets of heavier rain over an already saturated portion of the coverage area the secondary risks. These risks are covered by a Marginal Risk east of I-29 increasing further to a Slight Risk on the far eastern fringes of our CWA. Wednesday: Reinforcing push of mid level CAA for Wednesday with as much as 35-45 kts of wind at the top of the mix layer allowing for a breezy to wind day. A decent westerly component to the wind should aid mixing and allow for afternoon high temperatures to still push into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Thursday thru Sunday: A period largely characterized by upper level NW flow. This will keep temperatures near or a touch above seasonal normals as the ridge axis ever so slowly pushes east with time. This pattern also keeps significant precipitation chances low although not zero as subtle waves running through the flow can occur, although difficult to resolve at longer time ranges. At least minor hints of one such wave Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 VFR conditions and relatively light winds expected for the first half of the TAF period. Upper level cloud cover will increase overnight into Tuesday morning along with shower chances sliding in from the west. These isolated to scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm work into HON during the predawn hours and FSD toward daybreak. Have kept mention to -SHRA for now but chances for -TSRA are there and increase late in the period near, and especially east, of I-29. Southerly winds will also increase through the second half of the period and will turn more west then northwesterly behind a front toward/after the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kalin AVIATION...Kalin