373
FXUS63 KFSD 060859
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwest winds with gusts up into the lower 40s
  possible. Strongest gusts are expected along the Buffalo Ridge
  given their elevated elevation.

- Scattered showers return Friday afternoon into Saturday
  morning. Probabilities for 0.10" of rain remain below 40%.

- Chances for above normal temperatures return late next week as
  a ridge of high pressure builds across the south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early morning satellite imagery shows clear skies across our area,
with a surface high pressure sliding southeastwards off to our west.
With a strong surface low pressure remaining well off to our
northeast, the surface pressure gradient between these two features
remains elevated today. While winds during the remaining early
morning hours will remain in the teens, as the inversion weakens
throughout the rest of the morning hours after sunrise, we will
again see stronger winds aloft brought down to the surface.
Currently expecting wind gusts of 35 mph up into the lower 40s,
though if we are more mixy than currently expected winds could end
up above 45 mph. While the ensemble situational awareness tables
(ESATs) again shows winds at 850mb at the 90th percentile of
climatology for today, models are showing that 850mb winds do not
mix down through the 925mb layer...so it seems the winds will purely
be based on the surface pressure gradient. Have thus kept winds just
shy of advisory level, but day shift will need to monitor the
observations to see if an advisory is needed. Temperatures in the
lower 70s are expected across SW MN, warming up into the lower 80s
for areas along the Missouri River Valley.

Friday will see the surface high pressure expand into a ridge as it
traverse the region eastwards, which will swing the winds around to
become out of the southeast. As a weak surface low pressure develops
quickly on the backside of the ridge, mid-level warm-air advection
(WAA) develops as a weak shortwave moves across the region,
resulting in scattered light showers possible along the Missouri
River Valley throughout the day. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures
remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances for scattered light
showers extend northwards overnight into Saturday as a weak mid-
level low moves overhead. Probabilities for 0.10" of rain overnight
remain below 40%, with highest chances along the SD/NE border.

A surface high pressure dives southwards on Saturday, ending chances
for rain by Saturday morning. The surface high will have brought
slightly cooler temperatures along with it, resulting in afternoon
highs for Saturday and Sunday expected to remain below average in
the lower to upper 70s.

Will likely see a shortwave at some point early next week resulting
chances for rain, with models currently indicating this should
happen Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, models have continued
to show a mid-level ridge expanding into the central plains mid-
week, which will increase chances for above normal temperatures and
increased chances for below normal precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds overnight may
gust around 20 knots; however, LLWS is possible across the area
when winds are lighter with no gusts. This is largely driven by
speed difference, although direction shift of 20-30 degrees is
possible with the LLJ. Winds increase quickly after daybreak
Thursday, with gusts around 35 knots by mid morning. Some gusts
may approach 40 knots into the afternoon. Winds taper off
around/after sunset, with gusts likely to fall off quickly after
around 07.01-02z. Could again see some LLWS Thursday night, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...APT
AVIATION...SG