600
FXUS63 KFSD 051924
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
224 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds struggling to increase this afternoon thanks to persistent
mid-lvl clouds. A very narrow window for near advisory conditions
later this afternoon, but overall risk continues to diminish.

- Another breezy day expected Thursday with winds approaching
advisory levels.

- Scattered showers return late Friday into Saturday morning, though
low probabilities (30-40%) for anything more than 0.10" of rain.

- Pattern into next week continues to suggest quiet weather and near
to perhaps even slightly below normal temperatures well into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

THIS AFTERNOON:  Persistent area of transverse banding continues to
move eastward this afternoon thanks in part to a nearly 75 knot 500
mb westerly flow moving through the area (sampled from KFSD VWP).
In fact, flow at 700, 500, and 300 mb across the Dakotas is
sitting well outside the 30 year climatology for early June, and
sitting at or very near the max recorded winds for June 6th.
Generally precipitation has been very light this afternoon with
just traces of rain thank to the high based and dry subcloud
layer. Further south, a fine area of CU have developed along a
cold front near the Highway 20 corridor. Given realization of
convective temps this afternoon, cannot rule out an isolated
storm developing. This activity may be completely sheared off
given strong flow along and weaker low-lvl flow. Elsewhere,
winds continue to struggle as the mid-lvl clouds are not
allowing us to reach full mixing potential. Will keep the
advisory going, in coordination with neighbors, but the reality
is that winds may only very briefly meet criteria in the next
1-3 hours.

TONIGHT: A very narrow potential for a few diurnal CU or scattered
showers may also exist over the Red River/Minnesota Valley early
this evening, but this activity should also weaken.  Winds will
dissipate fairly quickly overnight with temperatures falling into
the 50s by Thursday morning.

THURSDAY:  Another breezy to perhaps windy day is likely on Thursday
as northwest flow continues and the surface pressure gradient
remains strong.  Mixing upwards of 750 mb will push wind gusts
towards the 40 to 45 mph range.  Will not issue an advisory at this
time and allow later shifts to look deeper on if we can truly reach
the depth of mixing models suggest.   Highs will fall below normal
in most locations.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:  Slightly better agreement for Friday into Saturday
with today`s model guidance.  A subtle shortwave moves through the
northwest flow late Friday, Likely bringing a period of scattered
showers to most areas overnight.  Highs on Friday climb near the 80
degree mark. Moisture remains fairly limited due to the northwest
flow, which supports the ensemble ideas that the probability of
>0.10" of QPF is only around 30 to 40 percent.  Rain chances move
southeast Saturday morning, and should leave a dry but cooler
forecast in place.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Outside of yet another subtle shortwave moving
through Tuesday, much of next week remains dry across the Northern
Plains, thanks to lingering Great Lakes troughing during the first
half of the week, and then amplifying mid-lvl ridging moving east
into the Plains for the second half of the week.  Temperatures
remain near to slightly below normal through Tuesday, with increased
confidence in highs above normal into the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Scattered mid-lvl clouds continue to move through along a
progressive frontal boundary moving to the southeast. Scattered
light rain has been reported along Highway 14, with sprinkles to
Interstate 90.

Winds will increase quickly behind the passing front this
afternoon, with a brief 1-3 hour window with near advisory level
winds.

We`ll also watch the front progress near Highway 20 by mid-
afternoon, with potential temperatures in the mid 80s leading to
quick convection developing. For now, feel this activity may be
too isolated to include in any prevailing group at SUX.

Winds will diminish overnight with VFR conditions into Thursday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ038>040-050-
     052>067.
MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ001>003-
     012>014.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux