865
FXUS64 KFWD 090508
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1208 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Monday/

A slow moving upper trough is over northern Baja California
tonight with high level moisture spreading east across Texas. This
is resulting in a scattering of high cloud cover across the
region. Southerly winds around 10 mph will continue with an
overall warm night expected. Lows will only drop into the mid 70s.

On Sunday, mid level ridging will continue to be shunted eastward
a bit as a weak cold front slides southward through the Plains.
This frontal boundary is currently draped across the KS/OK border
and is providing a focus for thunderstorms tonight. This
thunderstorm activity will remain well removed from our area until
late Sunday night when the frontal boundary pushes south of the
Red River. While a few storms may linger into the overnight hours,
weak mid and upper level winds should inhibit a more organized
complex of storms. Nonetheless, we`ll have 20-30% PoPs after
midnight across our far northern counties.

On Monday, the frontal boundary will become more diffuse, but
should generally be located somewhere along or just south of I-20.
Low and mid tropospheric flow will be very weak with only subtle
disturbances spreading through the Plains, but modest instability
will be in place across North Texas. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will likely develop in the vicinity of the remnant
frontal boundary during peak heating. Widespread severe weather is
unlikely, but the strongest storms could produce some low end
severe wind gusts or hail. Temperatures will be several degrees
cooler given the increase in cloud cover and rain chances.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Next Weekend/

We`ll be watching two distinct areas of convection Sunday
afternoon, one associated with a West Texas dryline and the other
with a late-season cold front in Oklahoma. The West Texas activity
will separate from the dryline, encouraged to move into the deeper
moisture to the east, but generally weak steering flow will make
this a slow process. The frontal convection to our north should
steadily become outflow-dominant, weakening or diminishing
entirely during the evening hours. Both of these areas will be
largely driven by daytime heating, and with little upper support
and no nocturnal low-level jet, neither should thrive Sunday
night. Low PoPs will address the potential for either/both areas
to enter the region during the overnight hours. The 3-km NAM is
bullish on renewed convection along the frontal/outflow boundary
early Monday morning, but with little to support this, other
available CAM guidance is more appropriately quiet. Weak shear
should focus the convective mode toward rather disorganized multi-
cell clusters that at worst could contain small hail and gusty
winds.

As is typical for this time of year, guidance has poor handle on
the evolution of the surface boundary. Despite the uncertainty in
its position on Monday, it should still remain in the vicinity,
serving as a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon
hours. Sunday`s activity across West Texas will have disrupted the
mid-level flow, and this weakness will be drifting over North and
Central Texas at peak heating Monday afternoon. While this may
encourage additional showers and storms to develop (not associated
with the surface boundary), these convective elements will also
suffer from weak shear. But with adequate instability, the
stronger cells could still result in small hail and gusty winds.

A more potent shortwave will dive into North Texas on Tuesday when
another round of showers and storms may result. Seasonally warm
temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture will maintain the
instability, and the disturbance aloft will introduce an uptick in
shear. But with weak boundary layer flow and the lack of any
surface focus, any convection would likely remain disorganized
Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS wants to surge an MCS through
the region. The ECMWF delays this potential until Wednesday.

After the rain/cloud-diminished temperatures during the first half
of the upcoming workweek, ridging will nose back into the Lone
Star State, pushing daytime temperatures back above normal late in
the week. Next weekend looks like a repeat of this weekend,
seasonal early summer temperatures with elevated humidity.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will generally prevail with southerly winds around 10 kt
tonight. Some scattered MVFR stratus is expected to develop in the
Hill Country and may impact Waco during the early morning hours
Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak front will approach the D10 airspace
late Sunday and low level winds will likely become more easterly.
As the front pushes south late Sunday night, a northeast wind is
expected and will be addressed in the extended portion of the DFW
TAF. In addition, MVFR cigs may accompany the frontal passage
early Monday morning.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  94  73  87  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Waco                73  91  74  88  72 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               71  91  70  83  67 /   0   0  10  20  10
Denton              75  94  70  85  70 /   0   0  20  30  20
McKinney            75  93  71  85  70 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dallas              74  94  73  87  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Terrell             70  90  71  86  69 /   0   0   5  20  20
Corsicana           71  92  74  88  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              72  93  73  90  72 /   0   0   0  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  95  72  87  71 /   0   0  20  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$