445
FXUS64 KFWD 271254
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
754 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The previous forecast remains in good shape, so no major changes
were necessary with this morning`s update. Low chances for showers
and storms will linger throughout the day, though most locations
will remain dry. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions will continue
across the region.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

Our evening thunderstorms near the Red River have dissipated, but
some low rain chances will linger across our eastern zones through
the morning as showers and storms continue to develop ahead of a
weak frontal boundary. While most of this activity should remain
just to our east, we`ll carry some low (20%) PoPs in the event we
see some development further west than what is currently being
observed. Most areas will remain rain-free throughout the day, but
with the front draped from NW to SE across the region, additional
isolated showers and storms are expected to develop during peak
heating this afternoon near and south of boundary. Afternoon
temperatures will climb into the mid 90s to near 103 degrees with
heat index values mostly between 105-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory
remains in effect through this evening. Any convective activity
should diminish with the loss of daytime heating during the
evening hours.

The axis of a mid-level ridge will shift back over the region on
Friday which will shut off our rain chances. High temperatures
will be in the mid 90s to near 104 degrees. We will meet Heat
Advisory criteria once again Friday afternoon with heat index
values between 105-110 degrees, so expect the Heat Advisory to be
extended through tomorrow at some point today. While heat index
values will exceed 110 degrees for a few locations both today and
tomorrow, we will fail to meet the two-day criteria for issuing an
Excessive Heat Warning outside of a handful of sporadic locations.
Nonetheless, it`s going to be hot, so ensure you stay hydrated and
practice heat safety if spending any time outdoors.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/
Update:
The current forecast for this weekend through Independence Day is
still very much on track (see detailed discussion below). In a
nutshell, we will remain hot and humid through next week with a
couple of low storm chances Sunday and possibly around July 4th.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Through Independence Day/

Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas
into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself
from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the
Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will
peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits
the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures
toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday).

This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf
moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F
during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of
the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min
dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as
the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After
many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region
will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s
not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still
within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110
despite the hottest temperatures so far this year.

The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday
across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the
Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into
the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its
progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting
areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex.

By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western
periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of
subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another
cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in
Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts
within our region.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR and east to southeast winds below 10 knots will continue.
Winds will briefly be out of the southwest for a few hours this
morning at KACT, but wind speeds should only be around 4 to 6
knots. Isolated showers and storms may develop across Central
Texas and western North Texas this afternoon. This activity should
remain well south and west of D10 terminals. While some activity
is possible near KACT, the potential is quite low since coverage
will be limited. However, we`ll keep a mention of VCTS in the TAF
for now. Any shower/thunderstorm activity will dissipate near
sunset this evening.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  81 100  81  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco               100  79  99  79  98 /  20  10   0   0   0
Paris               93  73  96  79  96 /   0   0   0   0   5
Denton              98  79 101  79 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
McKinney            97  77  99  79  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dallas              98  80 100  81 101 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             96  76  97  78  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           97  79  99  79  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
Temple              99  78  99  79  98 /  20  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  79 101  79 100 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$