Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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230 FXUS64 KFWD 251935 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ /Through Wednesday Night/ The continuation of this prolonged period of heat remains the primary weather concern through the short-term forecast period as strong mid-/upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert Southwest. Expect afternoon highs in the mid- to upper 90s this afternoon across much of the area, with a few locations across the Big Country and the DFW Metroplex peaking near/at 100 degrees. The spatial coverage of 100-degree temperatures may increase on Wednesday, especially across portions of North Texas as 24-26 degreeC 850mb temperatures sprawl overhead the region. A steady influx of moist, southerly low-level flow will keep humidity on the higher end and heat index values in the 102-108 range this afternoon and 105-110 range Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also add onto the heat stress. There is some uncertainty with how convection during the midweek period unfolds across North Texas (discussed below) and how it impacts temperatures. Nonetheless, we have extended the Heat Advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Continue to take all of the necessary precautions to ensure you, your loved ones, and your pets stay safe in the heat! North-northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge will increase the potential for a couple thunderstorm complexes to move out of the Plains and toward North Texas during the midweek period. Convective initiation is expected to take place later this afternoon/evening across portions of southern Iowa/northern Missouri/southeastern Nebraska in the vicinity of a cold front extending out of surface low pressure centered over southeastern Ontario. Rapid upscale growth into a south-southeastward propagating MCS is expected during the overnight hours. High-resolution guidance has continued to downtrend in the thunderstorm potential for our forecast area during the overnight hours. It is looking more likely that this MCS or remnants of the complex will approach our northeastern zones later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon. Additional thunderstorms may develop along this system`s outflow or in the vicinity of the cold front across Central Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Northerly mean flow and 15-20 kt 850mb winds would support south-southwesterly propagating clusters/complexes of thunderstorms into North Texas late Wednesday. However, with a loss of daytime heating Wednesday evening and these systems being so tied to mesoscale processes, it is uncertain how far these storms will maintain into our forecast area. Nonetheless, the environment will support strong wind gusts and isolated small hail, so make sure to keep updated with the forecast over the next couple of days. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Onward/ A weak surface boundary will be draped somewhere across the northeast third of the region at the start of the forecast period, which may warrant 10-20 POPs on Thursday where an isolated storm or two may occur. Subsidence associated with a strengthening ridge aloft will shut down most convective attempts, however, keeping the vast majority of the region hot, humid and rain-free. The ridge will remain overhead through the weekend and actually strengthen during the early part of next week. Triple digit high temperatures will be the result just about every afternoon with heat index values regularly in the 105 to 110 degree range. Sunday will be another day where a few storms may occur across the northeast associated with another weak front, but POPs will again remain 10 to 20 percent. Strong ridging and oppressive heat will otherwise likely continue through the July 4th holiday. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR conditions with SCT to BKN 035-050 cigs will persist through the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening. Persistent moist, southerly low-level flow will likely bring about another period of MVFR cigs to KACT and the D10 terminals Wednesday morning. Southerly surface winds generally between 10-20 kts will continue through the TAF period. Looking just beyond this TAF period, low chances for thunderstorms will exist near the DFW Metroplex late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. A VCTS inclusion will be decided in later TAF updates. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 99 81 101 81 / 5 10 10 0 0 Waco 79 96 78 98 78 / 5 5 5 0 0 Paris 78 97 75 97 77 / 10 20 20 5 0 Denton 81 101 78 102 78 / 5 10 20 0 0 McKinney 80 99 78 101 79 / 10 10 20 5 0 Dallas 81 99 80 101 81 / 5 10 20 0 0 Terrell 78 96 77 98 78 / 5 10 20 5 0 Corsicana 80 97 80 99 79 / 5 10 10 5 0 Temple 78 97 76 98 76 / 5 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 80 100 77 101 78 / 5 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$