655
FXUS64 KFWD 271805
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

An upper ridge currently centered over far West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico will gradually trek east over the state of
Texas the next couple of days. Expect oppressive heat and humidity
to continue through the short-term forecast period and beyond with
widespread afternoon highs in the mid-90s to low 100s. Our local
Excessive Heat Warning criteria is for areas that are forecast to
observe 110+ degree heat index values over two consecutive days.
Many locations across the DFW Metroplex and its collar counties
exceeded the 110 degree heat index threshhold Wednesday afternoon
and are expected to reach the same mark later today. Therefore, an
Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect through this evening for
the Metroplex and surrounding areas where heat index values
between 110-115 degrees are likely. Elsewhere, a Heat Advisory
remains in effect where heat index values are expected to remain
below 110 degrees or this is the first day the 110 degree
threshhold is met. An area-wide Heat Advisory will likely be
extended into Friday evening, but we will kick the issuance to the
evening forecast shift when the EHW expires to avoid confusion
with the heat headlines.

A weak frontal boundary currently bisects our forecast area from
the northwest to the southeast along a Jacksboro-Corsicana line.
Isolated thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of
this boundary this afternoon into this evening as the region
remains on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. The best
potential for thunderstorms (20-30%) looks to reside across
Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where deeper moisture and a
healthy cumulus field is currently present. The environment will
support isolated strong dowburst winds and marginally severe hail.
Most locations will remain dry through this evening. Hot and dry
weather will continue into Friday as the upper ridge moves
directly overhead.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/
Update:
The current forecast for this weekend through Independence Day is
still very much on track (see detailed discussion below). In a
nutshell, we will remain hot and humid through next week with a
couple of low storm chances Sunday and possibly around July 4th.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Through Independence Day/

Mid-level ridging will continue to bake North and Central Texas
into early July. The anticyclone will gradually reposition itself
from its current location over the Desert Southwest into the
Southeast U.S. by the middle of next week. Our 500mb heights will
peak during the weekend into early next week as the dome transits
the region, the cumulative heat yielding the highest temperatures
toward the end of that period (Monday and Tuesday).

This will mean clear nights and partly cloudy days as rich Gulf
moisture lifts into a cumulus field. DFW`s dew point soared to 77F
during the daylight hours of this morning, just one degree shy of
the record value for June 26. Thankfully, our daily max and min
dew points will gradually decrease over the next several days as
the heat builds and the mixing depth steadily increases. After
many days with 70F+ dew points at peak heating, much of the region
will see dew point values mix out into the 60s next week. That`s
not dry by any means, but max heat index values (while still
within Heat Advisory criteria) will be less likely to reach 110
despite the hottest temperatures so far this year.

The only decent chance for rain during the period will be Sunday
across portions of Northeast Texas. A shortwave will skirt the
Canadian border late in the week, sending a cold front deep into
the Southern Plains. But the intensity of the ridge will slow its
progress and prevent any associated precipitation from impacting
areas beyond the low chances within the Ark-La-Tex.

By July 4, North and Central Texas will be on the western
periphery of the ridge. While heights will still be indicative of
subsidence, the sea breeze may activate to our south, and another
cold front to our north could disrupt holiday festivities in
Oklahoma. Both areas will bear watching for potential impacts
within our region.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions with southeast flow at 5-12 kt will prevail through
the TAF period for all terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop across portions of Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley later this afternoon and may approach KACT in the
22Z-02Z range. If storms move over the terminal, strong downburst
winds and frequent lightning will be possible.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    99  81 100  81  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                99  80  98  79  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
Paris               93  72  95  78  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              99  79 101  79 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            97  77  99  79  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              99  80 100  81 100 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             95  76  97  78  97 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           98  80  99  79  98 /  10  10   5   0   0
Temple             101  79  99  79  98 /  20  10   5   0   0
Mineral Wells      101  79 101  79 100 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100-101-
105>107-115-116-120>123-129-130-135-141>143-146>148-156>162-174-
175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ102>104-117>119-131>134-144-145.

&&

$$