Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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175 FXUS64 KFWD 250555 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ Hot weather will continue through mid week, though an increase in humidity will drive heat index values up a few degrees compared to the last several days. Following a warm and muggy morning, temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with only a handful of locations reaching 100 degrees. However, thanks to the increase in low level moisture, nearly all locations will see heat index values in the triple digits between 101-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of North and Central Texas through this evening. After a rain-free spell, low rain chances will return to North Texas this evening as a cluster of storms in Oklahoma approaches the area. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they near the Red River, so the severe threat will be low. However, some storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds. The heat will continue Wednesday, with 100-degree temperatures becoming slightly more widespread, especially across North Texas. We will meet Heat Advisory criteria again on Wednesday, but this could be impacted by the Tuesday night convection. Additionally, isolated showers/storms may develop near any lingering outflow boundaries Wednesday afternoon. With these uncertainties in mind, we`ll hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory for now, though it will likely need to be extended through Wednesday for at least portions of the area sometime later today. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low (around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the stronger storms. Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately, compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions Thursday through the end of the forecast period. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and south winds near 8 to 12 knots will continue for most of the period. Patchy MVFR stratus is expected at KACT early Tuesday morning but still looks to remain south of the D10 terminals at this time. A cluster of storms will approach the Red River Tuesday evening and may impact portions of North Texas through the overnight hours. This activity is expected to be on a weakening trend, so we`ll hold off on including any mention in the TAFs for now. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 97 80 99 81 / 0 5 20 10 5 Waco 79 96 81 98 79 / 0 0 5 5 5 Paris 76 96 77 97 76 / 5 5 20 20 5 Denton 79 98 79 101 78 / 0 5 20 10 5 McKinney 78 97 79 99 78 / 0 5 20 10 5 Dallas 81 98 81 100 81 / 0 5 20 10 5 Terrell 78 95 79 97 77 / 0 5 20 10 5 Corsicana 78 97 79 97 79 / 0 0 5 5 5 Temple 77 97 78 98 77 / 0 0 5 5 0 Mineral Wells 76 98 77 101 77 / 0 0 20 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102- 115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175. && $$