Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
747 FXUS64 KFWD 190646 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 146 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strong mid/upper-level ridge, currently extending from northern Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will persist through the end of the week even as a southern stream upper low prepares to eject toward the Plains. At the surface, ridging to the east and southeast will maintain the prevailing onshore low-level flow yielding unseasonably hot and precipitation-free conditions through the period. Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday with morning lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s. With ambient temperatures running as much as 10-15 degrees above normal and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, widespread triple digit heat indices are expected both today and Friday. A Heat Advisory is not warranted at this time, owing to the spotty coverage of criteria exceedance. However, heat safety precautions should still be considered if heading outdoors over the next few days. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024/ /Thursday Evening Through Early Next Week/ Abnormal heat will continue into the weekend, with the hottest temperatures expected to occur on Friday. Fortunately, it doesn`t look like our record high temperatures for our climate sites (DFW, Waco, and Killeen) will fall, though temperatures will be within a few degrees of record values. Similar to the previous forecasts, sided with slightly warmer guidance as the NBM continues to be a bit too low, with high temperatures expected to climb into the mid to upper 90s Friday afternoon. While only a handful of locations will reach triple digits, high humidity will send heat index values above 100 degrees for most locations. Some locations will see heat index values above 105 degrees, but we do not anticipate the need for a Heat Advisory as criteria will only be met for a single day. Despite this, ensure you`re practicing heat safety as the summer-like heat persists. On Saturday, an upper low will swing from the Four Corners Region into the Central Plains. A slight increase in cloud cover will result in a subtle decrease in temperatures Saturday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper low will drag a cold front through much of the Plains as it moves east over the weekend, but it`s still rather uncertain whether this front will reach our forecast area. The NBM is not advertising any frontal passage at this time; however, the deterministic ECMWF and GFS bring this front through North and Central Texas sometime Sunday or Monday. Sided closely with NBM for now, but some adjustments may be needed as confidence increases over the next day or two. Low rain chances are currently forecast for western North and Central Texas Sunday evening associated with convection near the front to our west. However, PoPs may need to be expanded and increased if confidence in FROPA for our area increases. Beyond this weekend, there is considerable uncertainty in what next week will entail. However, it appears temperatures will be closer to normal values. Some guidance hints at a cold front towards the middle of the week, with low chances for showers and storms returning around the same time. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ No aviation concerns over the next 30 hours as strengthening high pressure aloft maintains VFR and light south winds AOB 10 kts. A few occasional gusts to 15-20kt are possible during the afternoon. Could see some MVFR CIGs develop towards daybreak this morning across Central Texas, impacting KAUS and likely nearing KGRK, but the stratus deck should remain well south of KACT. Otherwise, mostly clear skies expected with some fair weather cumulus possible through the afternoon. 12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 99 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 98 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 72 96 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 74 99 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 75 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 77 100 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 72 99 73 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 75 98 74 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 98 72 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$