254
FXUS64 KFWD 172252
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
552 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday Evening/

The axis of a mid level ridge centered over Mexico stretches north
through Central and North Texas, with the northern edge extending
into the Southern Plains. The ridge will remain largely stationary
for the next few days, keeping temperatures around 10 degrees
above normal through the midweek period. Tonight`s lows will
remain in the lower 70s for most locations, with the exception of
areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex where upper 60s are most
likely. Wednesday will be hotter with all locations likely
exceeding 90 degrees for the daily high. It does look like a moist
layer around 850mb will support another day of widespread cumulus
development Wednesday afternoon, which should provide occasional
breaks from the sun. Wednesday night`s temperatures should remain
in the 70s area-wide.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 347 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024/
/Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably strong ridging will intensify into the weekend above
the Southern Plains as persistent troughing dominates both the
West and the East. Temperatures will steadily climb in tandem with
rising 500mb heights, which will top 5900m by Friday. All
available perfect-prog guidance projects 500mb temperatures above
the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex will rise above -1C (into the 30s
in Fahrenheit) on Friday. The NAM has 500mb temperatures above
freezing! This isn`t just near-record for September but would
challenge the all-time record high 500mb temperature for our local
weather balloons (1950 to present), which is -0.5C from July 1951.
Despite intense subsidence and similarly impressive temperature
anomalies at 700 and 850mb, a remarkably humid boundary layer,
combined with the shorter days and lower sun angles of September,
may keep Friday`s high temperatures below daily record highs
(values in the climate section below). MOS guidance has highs near
100F Friday afternoon for many locations, including DFW and Waco.
Heat index values will exceed 100 across much of the region late
in the week and into the upcoming weekend, with the highest values
occurring on Friday.

An upper low will emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. Although
its associated cold front will likely get no closer than the Texas
Panhandle, it will reorient our upper ridge. Combined with an
influx of high clouds, this may shave a few degrees off afternoon
temperatures on Saturday. However, there will still be the
potential for temperatures to threaten the century mark in some
locations. Decaying frontal convection from West Texas may invade
from the west Saturday night into Sunday morning; these showers
are the only rain chances in the 7-day forecast.

Early next week, the ridge will be displaced to our south. While
this will bring an end to the threat of triple digits,
temperatures will remain above normal with highs generally in the
90s Sunday through Tuesday. However, extended guidance knows that
cold fronts cluster around the autumnal equinox (which is on
Sunday). Although there is considerable disparity among
operational solutions and ensemble members, there is some hope for
a cold front during the middle of next week. But don`t break out
the winter coats just yet; the Climate Prediction Center continues
to favor above normal temperatures through the end of the month.

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for September 20 (Friday)
   DFW       102 in 1953
   Waco      101 in 2021
   Killeen   100 in 2021

(DFW Airport was 100 degrees on September 20, 2021.)

Although all 3 sites recorded later triple-digit days last year,
each location has only reached the century mark this late in the
year (September 20 and later) 5 years this century.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

High pressure aloft will provide VFR and overall quiet aviation
weather through Wednesday evening, with mostly clear skies at
night and VFR cumulus during the day. Light east winds will veer
to the south overnight with speeds generally around 5 kt. South
winds will increase to 7 to 10 kt late Wednesday morning with a
few higher gusts possible in the afternoon.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  94  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                73  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               69  91  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              72  96  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  95  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              74  96  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             70  94  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           72  95  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  95  73  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  96  73  97  72 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$