Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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117 FXUS64 KFWD 242224 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 524 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Wednesday/ Scattered showers and storms have developed this afternoon along the stalled cold front as expected. This activity will drift east, southeast and dissipate with the loss of surface heating. Our focus will then turn to the next cold front, slated to move into North Texas around midnight. This cold front will be stronger than the last one and will move through the entire forecast area by midday Wednesday. Showers and storms will accompany the front with the best chances across the northeast zones overnight/Wednesday morning. Many locations west of the I-35 corridor may not see much if any rainfall since the majority of large scale ascent associated with a deepening upper low will remain to the east. A few strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, mainly north of I-20. Storms will end quickly from north to south Wednesday morning with the passing front and increasing large scale subsidence behind the departing upper low. Decreasing clouds Wednesday afternoon will offset weak cold air advection, allowing temperatures to warm into the 80s. One thing that will make it feel like a fall cold front will be a breezy north to northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ This morning`s showers and storms have mostly dissipated with the exception of some very isolated activity across portions of Central Texas. The remainder of the afternoon will feature warmer temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A lull in convective activity is expected for the next few hours, but a lingering frontal boundary across our southern zones will serve as a focus for additional scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon. This activity will be confined to far Central/Southeast and should exit the area near sunset this evening. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main hazards. We`ll see another brief lull in rain chances this evening, but this will only be temporary as another shortwave trough will be digging into the Southern Plains along with its attendant cold front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in Oklahoma late this evening near the front and will continue moving south towards North Texas overnight. This activity should cross the Red River sometime after midnight and will continue south through much of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. While the potential for severe thunderstorms is low, adequate elevated instability and deep layer shear will support at least an isolated threat for a severe storm or two, mainly near and north of the I-20 corridor. The main hazards will be hail and damaging wind gusts. Rain chances will end from north to south Wednesday morning, with all activity exiting the area by mid to late morning. Winds will shift out of the northeast behind the front near 10-15 mph. As a result, cooler temperatures can be expected Wednesday afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ Update: No major changes were made with this latest forecast update other than to incorporate the latest data from both deterministic and ensemble guidance. Fall-like weather conditions will continue through the rest of the week into this weekend, with most of the area remaining rain-free. There may be some wrap around showers across our northeastern zones on Friday, but otherwise expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. For more details, please see the previous discussion down below. Reeves Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Night Onward/ Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to mid 80s. Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday. As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%) across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances, slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and Saturday. This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper 80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A few storms will linger across Central Texas and the Big Country through sunset. Otherwise, VFR will continue at all TAF sites this evening with few to scattered Cu. A cold front will enter into North Texas around midnight, reaching the Metroplex TAF sites around 08Z. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold front but it does appear the best coverage of storms will be east of I-35 and north of I-20, where the large scale lift associated with a deepening upper low will be the strongest. We will maintain a TEMPO group for storms at the Metroplex TAF sites between 08Z and 12Z. Lower storm chances are expected across Waco with the passage of the front but there could be some storms in the vicinity of the terminal between 11Z and 14Z. A light south to southwest wind this evening will turn to the north/northeast quickly behind the front. Post-frontal wind speeds will increase between 8 and 13 knots along with occasional gusts near 20 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 81 64 83 63 / 70 30 0 0 5 Waco 67 84 61 84 59 / 40 50 0 0 5 Paris 63 81 59 82 59 / 60 10 0 5 10 Denton 64 81 59 83 59 / 70 20 0 0 5 McKinney 65 83 60 83 60 / 70 20 0 0 5 Dallas 67 81 64 84 62 / 70 30 0 0 5 Terrell 65 83 60 84 60 / 60 40 0 0 5 Corsicana 68 84 62 85 62 / 60 50 0 0 5 Temple 67 86 61 86 59 / 20 40 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 65 81 59 83 58 / 60 20 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$