256
FXUS64 KFWD 212311
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Saturday Night/

Mid level ridging will continue to build across the Southern
Plains through Saturday with hot and dry conditions expected.
Outside of an isolated shower across our southeast counties, no
precipitation is expected. Afternoon highs will tick upward a few
degrees on Saturday with temperatures around 95-96 areawide and
heat indices approaching 100 degrees. This trend will continue
into the early part of the upcoming week where Heat Advisories
will likely be needed. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight and
again Saturday night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 150 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Sunday and Beyond/

The main story of the long-term forecast is the arrival of this
year`s first long duration period of impactful heat early next
week.

A stout 597dam upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee
River Valley will shift westward over the next several days. The
ridge axis will shift overhead North and Central Texas early next
week before settling over the Desert Southwest by Wednesday. This
pattern will result in the hottest temperatures of the year thus
far with widespread afternoon highs in the mid-to upper 90s
expected Sunday and beyond into the foreseeable future through at
least the end of the next work week. The most likely area for
temperatures to exceed the century mark will start across our Big
Country counties generally along/west of Highway 281. The areal
coverage of triple-digit temperature readings may expand as we get
further into the week with Monday or Tuesday potentially being
DFW`s first 100-degree day of the year (20-30% chance). If we get
a 100-degree reading at DFW Airport sometime this week, that will
place this year`s first 100-degree day about a week before the
average date of July 1st.

Hot temperatures will continue through the week with several
locations across North and Central Texas reaching triple-digits on
a daily basis through the end of next week. Persistent south-
southeasterly flow beneath the upper ridge will keep low-level
moisture and high humidity sprawled across the region. Thus,
expect afternoon heat index values to peak in the 105-110 degree
range across much of our forecast area. A return to daily heat
headlines is likely by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Warm
overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also increase the
likelihood of heat stress. Make sure to take the proper heat
safety precautions and check up on your friends and family members
who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses!

As the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, NNW flow aloft will take shape over our region
increasing the potential for thunderstorm complexes to propagate
south out of OK/KS into North Texas. With these complexes being so
dependent on smaller, mesoscale processes, we will limit rain
chances to 20-30% for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame at this
moment.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with south winds around 10 kt.
Other than some scattered afternoon cumulus around 6000 ft, no
significant aviation impacts are expected through Saturday.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  94  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  96  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  96  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  94  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  95  76  95  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  94  72  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       72  94  73  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$