502
FXUS64 KFWD 211801
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
101 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/

High pressure will continue to build across North and Central
Texas through the first half of the weekend. With subsidence in
place, temperatures will climb to the lower to mid 90s today and
mid 90s tomorrow. Low-level southerly flow will help draw plenty
of moisture into our region, bumping heat index values a few
degrees above the actual temperature. Most locations will likely
experience heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon,
generally between 5-10 mph.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Saturday Onward/

Over the next several days, the upper ridge will propagate
westward from its current location across the Ohio Valley,
eventually taking up residence over the Desert Southwest by
midweek. As this transition occurs, the ridge axis will be
centered directly overhead from Sunday through Tuesday, leading
to hot and subsident conditions locally. This will result in the
hottest temperatures of the year so far with highs in the upper
90s and a few spots reaching triple-digits on a daily basis
through the extended forecast period. In addition, a steady influx
of Gulf moisture within southeasterly low-level low will maintain
high humidity levels, especially during the first half of the
workweek. This will lead to heat index values reaching and
exceeding 105 for much of the area, and a return to heat headlines
can be expected in the coming days.

By Wednesday, the ridge will have completed its westward
progression, amplifying the synoptic pattern and placing the
Plains within northwest flow aloft in the process. This pattern
can sometimes allow weak fronts to push as far south as KS/OK,
with resultant convective complexes occasionally progressing
towards North Texas within NNW steering flow. This setup will
offer at least some low thunderstorm chances next Wednesday and
Thursday with PoPs of 20-30% currently in the forecast. However,
since these complexes are driven at the mesoscale level, the
potential for any such convection to actually affect the forecast
area will remain quite uncertain for a few more days. Unless next
week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least
some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely
continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None.

No major weather impacts are expected at any of the North and
Central TAF sites. Southerly winds between 10-15 knots will
prevail through the duration of this forecast. Some low clouds
will be possible across Central Texas, however, they should remain
just south of KACT. Some high clouds will continue to stream
across the sky today and tomorrow.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  96  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                91  74  93  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               91  72  94  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              94  74  97  75  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            93  74  95  76  98 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  77  97  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  74  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  76  95  76  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              92  73  93  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  73  95  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$