561
FXUS64 KFWD 241002
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
502 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No major adjustments to the current forecast, including the Heat
Advisory, are necessary at this time (see discussion below).

79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday Night/

The large scale weather pattern will remain unchanged to start the
work week with a mid-level ridge anchored from the Desert
Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Temperature and
humidity trends will be very similar to today with most spots
reaching the upper 90s to around 100 Monday afternoon. The deepest
low level moisture will reside near and east of the I-35
corridor, resulting in afternoon heat index values around or just
above 105. Most other locations will see max heat index values in
the 100 to 104 degree range. We will maintain the current Heat
Advisory configuration and start time. The good news is that a
clear sky at night will allow for steady cooling, with most
locations dropping into the 70s before sunrise. A south wind in
the 5 to 10 mph range will also provide a bit of relief from the
heat.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 308 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/Tuesday Onward/

Upper ridging will shift westward by midweek, with amplifying
northerly flow present through the Central Plains. While this
will offer little relief in our temperatures locally, the pattern
may favor very isolated convection or at least some remnant cloud
cover to drift towards North Texas from upstream activity in KS/OK
Tuesday night or Wednesday. However, the potential for any
measurable rainfall to occur in North Texas is only 10-20%, and
most areas should plan on remaining dry through the entire
workweek. An extension/expansion of heat products should be
expected over the next few days with little opportunity for relief
in sight.

The ridge will begin to elongate eastward through the
late week period, with subsidence and resultant hot/dry weather
prevailing into the upcoming weekend. A stalled frontal boundary
to our north may be convectively active heading into the weekend,
but right now the main rain chances look to remain north of the
Red River. Heat index values should continue to reach or exceed
105 on a daily basis with high temperatures mostly falling in a
range of 97-102.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will remain at all TAF sites through Tuesday
morning with only a few daytime Cu and no visibility
restrictions.

A southerly wind will continue in the 5 to 11 knot range with
occasional higher daytime gusts.


79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  81  99  81 100 /   0   0   0   5  10
Waco                95  77  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               97  78  98  78  97 /   5   5   5  10  20
Denton              99  79 100  79 100 /   0   5   0   5  10
McKinney            98  79  99  79  99 /   0   5   0  10  10
Dallas              99  81 100  81 100 /   0   0   0   5  10
Terrell             97  77  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   5  10
Corsicana           97  79  98  78  97 /   0   0   0   5  10
Temple              96  76  98  76  97 /   0   0   0   0   5
Mineral Wells       98  77 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$