214
FXUS64 KFWD 241925
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
225 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

This morning`s showers and storms have mostly dissipated with the
exception of some very isolated activity across portions of
Central Texas. The remainder of the afternoon will feature warmer
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A lull in
convective activity is expected for the next few hours, but a
lingering frontal boundary across our southern zones will serve as
a focus for additional scattered thunderstorm development late
this afternoon. This activity will be confined to far
Central/Southeast and should exit the area near sunset this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the main
hazards.

We`ll see another brief lull in rain chances this evening, but
this will only be temporary as another shortwave trough will be
digging into the Southern Plains along with its attendant cold
front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in
Oklahoma late this evening near the front and will continue moving
south towards North Texas overnight. This activity should cross
the Red River sometime after midnight and will continue south
through much of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. While
the potential for severe thunderstorms is low, adequate elevated
instability and deep layer shear will support at least an isolated
threat for a severe storm or two, mainly near and north of the
I-20 corridor. The main hazards will be hail and damaging wind
gusts.

Rain chances will end from north to south Wednesday morning, with
all activity exiting the area by mid to late morning. Winds will
shift out of the northeast behind the front near 10-15 mph. As a
result, cooler temperatures can be expected Wednesday afternoon
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No major changes were made with this latest forecast update other
than to incorporate the latest data from both deterministic and
ensemble guidance. Fall-like weather conditions will continue
through the rest of the week into this weekend, with most of the
area remaining rain-free. There may be some wrap around showers
across our northeastern zones on Friday, but otherwise expect
mostly sunny skies with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. For
more details, please see the previous discussion down below.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonable, rain-free conditions are expected at the start of the
extended forecast period as North and Central Texas remains
situated on the backside of an upper level low. Highs Thursday
will be quite similar to Wednesday`s, topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

Conditions will change slightly as the region will be under the
influence of the upper level low retrograding further west Friday.
As PTC9 moves inland and tracks around the upper low before
becoming absorbed into its flow, wrap around moisture will be sent
southward into the region, promoting low rain chances (20%)
across the northeast Friday. Other than the low rain chances,
slightly breezy conditions are expected as a result of this
system, with peak wind gusts near 25 mph likely both Friday and
Saturday.

This upper level system will gradually shift eastward this weekend
while ridging remains situated to the west. Increasing heights
aloft will aid in warming surface temperatures, with mid and upper
80s anticipated Sunday and into early next week. Overnight lows
will remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s throughout the period.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR and light and variable winds will continue through the
afternoon. A few isolated showers continue to stream across
Central Texas, so VCSH was added to the KACT TAF through 19Z.
More robust thunderstorm development is expected later this
afternoon near a lingering frontal boundary in far Central/Southeast
Texas, but this activity is expected to remain south of the KACT
terminal. Otherwise, rain-free conditions are expected until late
tonight when a cold front brings another round of showers and
storms to the region. This activity should reach D10 airspace
around 07-08Z and will impact most (if not all) TAF sites from
09-12Z. Winds will shift out of the north/northeast with the
arrival of this activity, but wind speeds will initially remain
light around 5 knots or so. Confidence wasn`t high enough to
include a TEMPO for TSRA at KACT, but if storms do make it to the
terminal, it would likely be between 12-14Z or so. Any stronger
storms may produce strong wind gusts and hail, but the potential
for severe storms will be quite limited and confined to North
Texas.

Showers and thunderstorms will end from north to south Wednesday
morning, with north/northeast winds increasing to 10-15 knots
around 14-16Z through the afternoon.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  81  64  83  63 /  70  30   0   0   5
Waco                67  84  61  84  59 /  40  50   0   0   5
Paris               63  81  59  82  59 /  60  10   0   5  10
Denton              64  81  59  83  59 /  70  20   0   0   5
McKinney            65  83  60  83  60 /  70  20   0   0   5
Dallas              67  81  64  84  62 /  70  30   0   0   5
Terrell             65  83  60  84  60 /  60  40   0   0   5
Corsicana           68  84  62  85  62 /  60  50   0   0   5
Temple              67  86  61  86  59 /  20  40   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       65  81  59  83  58 /  60  20   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$