Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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851 FXUS64 KFWD 191801 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to influence our weather conditions through tomorrow afternoon. As for today, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations may hit the century mark this afternoon, but those readings will remain few and far between. Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100s for several locations today as well. Otherwise, expect generally sunny skies and southerly winds around 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Unseasonably hot and dry conditions will continue through tomorrow afternoon, with a few more locations reaching the triple digit threshold. A Heat Advisory is unlikely to be needed, however folks should still exercise caution if they are outside during peak heating through the next couple of days. As for rain chances, North and Central Texas will remain dry through the period. Reeves && .LONG TERM... /Issued 427 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ /Friday Night through Next Thursday/ The long-term period features another hot and dry day on Saturday before a change in the weather pattern brings rain chances and cooler weather late Sunday into early next week. A strong upper level ridge will remain in control through Saturday keeping the high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 95-103 range. Breezy conditions can also be expected as the next storm system approaches from the west. A shortwave trough currently near the California coast will make its way through the Four Corners region and into the Great Plains on Sunday. The associated surface front should travel from the TX/OK Panhandle towards our area during the late afternoon or early evening hours. The latest suite of guidance continues to show the best potential for widespread showers/storms will stay well north of our area, but a few locations west of I-35 could see a few showers and storms late Sunday afternoon and/or evening as the front enters our region. An unsettled pattern will remain in place through at least mid-week as a second disturbance moves across the Plains Tuesday-Wednesday. The combination of abundant moisture and large scale ascent should give us another opportunity to see at least isolated to scattered showers/storms during this period. In addition to the rain chances, we will enjoy some cooler temperatures from Monday onward with daytime highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s with the exception of a few Central Texas zones where highs could reach the lower 90s on some days. During this period, winds will generally be from the north around 5-10 mph. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ Concerns...None at this time. VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Generally sunny skies will dominate the region outside of some fair weather afternoon cumulus. Winds will remain out of the south, generally less than 10 knots. Occasionally higher gusts will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours. Reeves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 98 78 99 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 77 100 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 95 73 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 98 75 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 98 75 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 99 78 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 97 75 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 98 76 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 98 75 98 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 98 73 99 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$