Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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402 FXUS64 KFWD 111807 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 107 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Wednesday/ A decaying complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to move east/southeast. While this activity will gradually dissipate over the next few hours, a reinvigoration of showers and storms is expected along any outflow boundaries through the afternoon as surface heating results in further destabilization. Strong subsidence will keep much of the Metroplex and areas further west quiet, with additional development likely concentrated in northern parts of the Metroplex and eastern North Texas, as well as portions of Central Texas. Coverage should remain fairly scattered with this afternoon`s activity, and the severe threat will be low given marginal deep-layer shear. However, we can`t rule out an isolated strong or marginally severe storm capable of producing 1" hail and strong wind gusts. The best potential for an isolated severe storm will be across Central Texas. Since much of the afternoon convection will be diurnally-driven, showers and storms will wane near sunset with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull is expected overnight, but with an upper low remaining overhead, additional scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late tonight and continue through Wednesday morning. While most of this activity will remain across Central Texas, latest CAMs are depicting some development further north (including the Metroplex). Storm chances will be lower as we head into Wednesday afternoon, but we can`t rule out a few additional diurnally-driven showers and storms for the remainder of the day. 10% PoPs were introduced for most of the area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than today but still near-average by mid-June standards, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 215 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024/ /Wednesday Night through Monday/ Mid level ridging will build into the Southern Plains through the latter half of the week leading to a generally tranquil period with temperatures warming back into the mid 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints should mix into the low/mid 60s Thursday through Saturday which will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Otherwise, a slow moving upper low off the California coast will spread across the Four Corners region and into the Central Plains over the weekend. While this will put a dent in the building ridge, the stronger forcing will remain well to our north with little chances for additional precipitation. As mid level ridging builds over the southeast U.S. early next week, modest tropical easterly flow will send a slug of 2.5"+ PWs westward across the Gulf tied to an inverted mid level trough. This feature will likely spread into southeast Texas late Monday and could result in an uptick of scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms that may make it into parts of our east and southeast counties. We`ll continue to monitor this feature over the coming days. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ A decaying complex of storms continues to move east and should dissipate over the next few hours across North Texas. Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along any lingering outflow boundaries this afternoon, but this activity is expected to remain north and east of the terminals. Confidence is not particularly high with precisely where storms will develop, but we`ll be monitoring trends closely and will adjust the TAF as necessary. The potential for additional development of showers and storms across Central Texas warranted maintaining VCTS in the KACT TAF through the evening. We`ll have to monitor for another round of convection late tonight into Wednesday morning. At this time, most of the convection is expected to remain across Central Texas, but there are some indications of development further north (including D10). VCTS was introduced to the KACT TAF late tonight, but confidence was too low to include in the D10 TAFs at this time. MVFR/IFR ceilings are likely again Wednesday morning, and MVFR ceilings are now advertised in the KACT TAF. Held off on including a mention in the D10 TAFs for now given uncertainty is high. Otherwise, light E to SE winds near 5-7 knots or less will continue through the period, outside of any nearby thunderstorms. Barnes && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 71 90 71 93 / 60 30 10 0 0 Waco 87 71 88 70 90 / 60 30 30 0 0 Paris 86 65 88 65 91 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 83 68 89 68 93 / 60 30 10 0 0 McKinney 84 68 89 68 92 / 30 20 10 0 0 Dallas 85 71 89 71 93 / 50 30 10 0 0 Terrell 85 68 89 67 91 / 30 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 86 72 89 70 92 / 30 30 20 0 0 Temple 88 71 89 70 92 / 50 30 30 0 0 Mineral Wells 82 69 89 69 93 / 70 30 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$