Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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025 FXUS64 KFWD 100556 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1256 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ Regional radar imagery and surface observations indicate a cold front is sliding southward through North Texas at this hour and is very near the I-20 corridor. Scattered thunderstorms along the Red River continue to weaken at this time with renewed convection occurring farther to the northwest. For the remainder of the night, the front will continue to push southward while additional thunderstorm chances will generally remain north of I-20 and across parts of our far western counties. PoPs will be around 20% for the rest of the night. On Monday, the frontal boundary will be located south of I-20 but will lose some of its forward momentum. This should become a focus for renewed convection as the atmosphere destabilizes throughout the day. While the convection allowing model guidance is really all over the place with respect to timing and coverage, a general consensus is that the frontal boundary should be the primary focus for additional scattered thunderstorms. That being said, we`ll be fairly liberal in area with PoPs across the region ranging from 20-50% and try to confine the highest rain chances where we think the boundary should end up. A band of 40-50% PoPs will be located south of the Metroplex and into some of our Central TX counties during peak afternoon heating. Most of this activity will be diurnally driven and should taper off in coverage pretty quickly this evening. The threat for severe weather is low, however a few storms could briefly pose a severe wind threat or hail threat. Otherwise, frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats. Monday night should be fairly quiet as afternoon heating wanes and thunderstorm coverage diminishes. It`ll be a bit cooler as well with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the north to lower 70s in our central TX counties. While the frontal boundary will become a little more diffuse on Tuesday, an upstream shortwave will eject out of the Four Corners and into West Texas. Increasing forcing for ascent and ample deep layer moisture should lead to another afternoon of scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly west of I-35 where a semi-organized cluster of storms may develop within the modest instability. We`ll have our highest PoPs confined to areas west of I-35 into the evening hours. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will mean cooler afternoon highs both Monday and Tuesday with temperatures topping out in the mid/upper 80s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024/ /Tuesday Through Next Weekend/ A shortwave trough will slowly transit the region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. With the dissolution of the frontal boundary, outflow from earlier convection will be the main features to focus renewed development. A rather languid wind field will allow such boundaries to linger. While the disturbance aloft will introduce some directional shear, the flow will be seasonally subdued. This will both limit the severe potential and reduce the speed of individual cells. But there will still be enough instability and forcing aloft to allow for some strong or marginally severe storms, with hail and wind the potential hazards. Despite the directional shear aloft, the weak flow within the boundary layer should largely eliminate the tornadic potential. With considerable precipitable water values, slow-moving downpours could reaggravate flooding issues. The mid-week event will likely feature two main rounds: one driven by daytime heating Tuesday afternoon and a second resulting from nocturnal forcing within the core of the shortwave early Wednesday morning. Guidance is in better agreement with the timing and evolution of the feature, the downglide portion of which should be in place by midday Wednesday. Another extended rain-free period will begin Wednesday afternoon. A West Coast low will move inland late in the week and trek through the Rockies. This will cause the meridionally oriented ridge axis to our west to gain a positive tilt, nosing into the Lone Star State. This will reduce cloud cover and steadily raise temperatures into the upcoming weekend. Rich Gulf moisture should keep highs in the 90s, but heat index values will approach 100 by late in the week. Tropical easterlies may introduce some sea breeze showers/storms during the weekend, but the bulk of the activity should remain to our southeast. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through much of the night before some MVFR cigs develop in the post frontal airmass across the D10 airspace early Monday morning. North-northeast winds around 10 kt can be expected for much of the day as the frontal boundary will remain to the south of the major airports. We should see an uptick in afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Monday and we`ll include a VCTS from 19Z into the early evening. Given the scattered nature of these storms, will hold off on any TEMPO for now, but there`s a decent shot of at least scattered storms disrupting mid/late afternoon arrivals/departures. Convection should begin to diminish in coverage by evening with loss of daytime heating. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 85 71 86 71 / 10 40 20 20 20 Waco 74 88 72 87 71 / 0 50 30 20 20 Paris 71 83 64 86 65 / 30 20 0 5 5 Denton 74 83 67 85 68 / 20 40 10 20 30 McKinney 74 83 67 86 68 / 20 30 5 20 20 Dallas 76 86 71 87 71 / 10 40 20 20 20 Terrell 74 85 68 86 68 / 5 40 20 10 10 Corsicana 75 88 71 88 71 / 0 40 20 20 20 Temple 74 90 72 88 70 / 5 40 30 20 20 Mineral Wells 72 85 69 85 69 / 20 40 20 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$