271
FXUS64 KFWD 231854
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
154 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

Increasing temperatures as we start a new week will be the main
weather hazard across North and Central Texas. Temperatures today
will top out in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees throughout our
region with heat index values closer to 100-105. Considering the
forecast for the rest of the week, today will likely be the
"coolest" day through at least Thursday.

Tomorrow`s temperatures, coupled with slightly higher dew points,
will yield heat index values between 100-107 degrees. The area
that is most likely to see heat-related impacts tomorrow will be
along and east of I-35 where heat-related illness may be more
prevalent. For that reason, a Heat Advisory will be in effect
starting noon tomorrow. The Heat Advisory will likely be extended
in time and expanded to account for the increasing temperatures.

Winds today and tomorrow will remain out of the south, generally
between 5-10 mph.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night through Sunday/

A stout mid level ridge will remain in place across the Southern
Plains Monday night through much of the week resulting in
increasing heat and humidity. The center of the ridge axis will
temporarily shift across West Texas on Tuesday in response to
deepening troughing across the eastern CONUS. While this won`t
have much impact on our temperatures, it may briefly allow
increasing northerly flow aloft to send a remnant Plains storm
complex southward toward the Red River late Tuesday and again
Wednesday. None of the major model guidance shows any noteworthy
precipitation making it into North Texas, but perhaps some
increased cloud cover can provide some temporary relief throughout
the day. Otherwise, our ridge will expand back to the east late
Wednesday through the remainder of the week and into next weekend.
This will support continued hot temperatures with highs near 100
each afternoon. Light synoptic scale flow will likely result in
less afternoon mixing Wednesday through Friday and should help
keep dewpoints in the lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
above 105 each afternoon and a likely continuation of heat
headlines through the week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None

VFR and south winds will continue through the forecast period.
Fair weather cumulus clouds have already developed and will
continue through around sunset. Mostly clear skies are expected
tonight with another round of cumulus expected tomorrow afternoon.
Wind speeds will remain below 11 knots through the forecast
period.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  99  80  99  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                76  96  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               77  97  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   5  10
Denton              76  99  78 100  79 /   5   0   0   0   5
McKinney            77  99  78  99  79 /   5   5   0   0   5
Dallas              79  99  80 100  81 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             76  97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           77  98  78  97  79 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              74  96  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       74  98  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$