230
FXUS64 KFWD 251935
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
235 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/Through Wednesday Night/

The continuation of this prolonged period of heat remains the
primary weather concern through the short-term forecast period as
strong mid-/upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert
Southwest. Expect afternoon highs in the mid- to upper 90s this
afternoon across much of the area, with a few locations across the
Big Country and the DFW Metroplex peaking near/at 100 degrees. The
spatial coverage of 100-degree temperatures may increase on
Wednesday, especially across portions of North Texas as 24-26
degreeC 850mb temperatures sprawl overhead the region. A steady
influx of moist, southerly low-level flow will keep humidity on
the higher end and heat index values in the 102-108 range this
afternoon and 105-110 range Wednesday afternoon. Warm overnight
lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also add onto the heat
stress. There is some uncertainty with how convection during the
midweek period unfolds across North Texas (discussed below) and
how it impacts temperatures. Nonetheless, we have extended the
Heat Advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Continue to take all of
the necessary precautions to ensure you, your loved ones, and
your pets stay safe in the heat!

North-northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned ridge will increase the potential for a couple
thunderstorm complexes to move out of the Plains and toward North
Texas during the midweek period. Convective initiation is expected
to take place later this afternoon/evening across portions of
southern Iowa/northern Missouri/southeastern Nebraska in the
vicinity of a cold front extending out of surface low pressure
centered over southeastern Ontario. Rapid upscale growth into a
south-southeastward propagating MCS is expected during the
overnight hours. High-resolution guidance has continued to
downtrend in the thunderstorm potential for our forecast area
during the overnight hours. It is looking more likely that this
MCS or remnants of the complex will approach our northeastern
zones later Wednesday morning into early Wednesday afternoon.
Additional thunderstorms may develop along this system`s outflow
or in the vicinity of the cold front across Central Oklahoma late
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. Northerly mean flow
and 15-20 kt 850mb winds would support south-southwesterly
propagating clusters/complexes of thunderstorms into North Texas
late Wednesday. However, with a loss of daytime heating Wednesday
evening and these systems being so tied to mesoscale processes, it
is uncertain how far these storms will maintain into our forecast
area. Nonetheless, the environment will support strong wind gusts
and isolated small hail, so make sure to keep updated with the
forecast over the next couple of days.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday Onward/

A weak surface boundary will be draped somewhere across the
northeast third of the region at the start of the forecast period,
which may warrant 10-20 POPs on Thursday where an isolated storm
or two may occur. Subsidence associated with a strengthening ridge
aloft will shut down most convective attempts, however, keeping
the vast majority of the region hot, humid and rain-free. The
ridge will remain overhead through the weekend and actually
strengthen during the early part of next week. Triple digit high
temperatures will be the result just about every afternoon with
heat index values regularly in the 105 to 110 degree range. Sunday
will be another day where a few storms may occur across the
northeast associated with another weak front, but POPs will again
remain 10 to 20 percent. Strong ridging and oppressive heat will
otherwise likely continue through the July 4th holiday.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1246 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR conditions with SCT to BKN 035-050 cigs will persist through
the remainder of this afternoon and into this evening. Persistent
moist, southerly low-level flow will likely bring about another
period of MVFR cigs to KACT and the D10 terminals Wednesday
morning. Southerly surface winds generally between 10-20 kts will
continue through the TAF period.

Looking just beyond this TAF period, low chances for thunderstorms
will exist near the DFW Metroplex late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. A VCTS inclusion will be decided in later TAF
updates.

Langfeld

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  99  81 101  81 /   5  10  10   0   0
Waco                79  96  78  98  78 /   5   5   5   0   0
Paris               78  97  75  97  77 /  10  20  20   5   0
Denton              81 101  78 102  78 /   5  10  20   0   0
McKinney            80  99  78 101  79 /  10  10  20   5   0
Dallas              81  99  80 101  81 /   5  10  20   0   0
Terrell             78  96  77  98  78 /   5  10  20   5   0
Corsicana           80  97  80  99  79 /   5  10  10   5   0
Temple              78  97  76  98  76 /   5   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       80 100  77 101  78 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$