819
FXUS64 KFWD 251058
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
558 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The previous forecast remains on track this morning. Therefore, no
major changes were necessary with this morning`s update. Latest
guidance has trended drier with this evening`s storm potential,
but we`ll maintain some low (20%) PoPs tonight through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 pm this
evening but will likely be extended later today as heat index
values will reach 105-110+ degrees for most locations on
Wednesday.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday/

Hot weather will continue through mid week, though an increase in
humidity will drive heat index values up a few degrees compared to
the last several days. Following a warm and muggy morning,
temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with
only a handful of locations reaching 100 degrees. However, thanks
to the increase in low level moisture, nearly all locations will
see heat index values in the triple digits between 101-110
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of North and
Central Texas through this evening.

After a rain-free spell, low rain chances will return to North
Texas this evening as a cluster of storms in Oklahoma approaches
the area. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they near
the Red River, so the severe threat will be low. However, some
storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

The heat will continue Wednesday, with 100-degree temperatures
becoming slightly more widespread, especially across North Texas.
We will meet Heat Advisory criteria again on Wednesday, but this
could be impacted by the Tuesday night convection. Additionally,
isolated showers/storms may develop near any lingering outflow
boundaries Wednesday afternoon. With these uncertainties in mind,
we`ll hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory for now,
though it will likely need to be extended through Wednesday for at
least portions of the area sometime later today.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

In a nutshell, it will remain hot and humid from mid-week through
early next week. If isolated storms do manage to develop
Wednesday afternoon near any outflow boundaries, they should
dissipate quickly Wednesday night with the loss of surface
heating. The mid-level ridge axis will shift eastward at the end
of the week, remaining centered around the ArkLaTex region through
early next week. Subsidence under the ridge will yield plenty of
sun and eliminate any appreciable chances for precipitation.
Temperatures Thursday through Monday will not vary much day to day
with highs mainly in the upper 90s to around 100 and lows from
the mid 70s to around 80. Southerly low level flow will also
supply a constant feed of Gulf moisture, keeping humidity and
afternoon heat index values high. The current Heat Advisory will
more than likely continue for most if not all of the forecast area
this weekend through early next week. The good news is that it
looks like we will stay below Excessive Heat Warning criteria.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will continue through the period, with the exception of a few
hours of patchy MVFR stratus across Central Texas this morning. A
weakening cluster of storms will move south out of Oklahoma
tonight and may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms to portions of North Texas. The potential for any
convection at the D10 terminals is very low at this time, and
latest guidance continues to trend drier. If we do see storms
tonight, additional development along any lingering outflow
boundaries will be possible Wednesday afternoon, but this
activity should remain northeast of the Metroplex. Winds will
remain out of the south near 8 to 12 knots with a few higher gusts
to 20 knots expected during the afternoon.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  80  99  80 100 /   5  20  10   5   0
Waco                96  81  98  79  99 /   0   5   5   5   0
Paris               96  77  97  75  96 /   5  20  20  20   0
Denton              98  79 101  77 100 /   5  20  10   5   0
McKinney            97  79  99  77  99 /   5  20  10  10   0
Dallas              98  81 100  80 101 /   5  20  10   5   0
Terrell             95  79  97  77  97 /   5  20  10  10   0
Corsicana           97  79  97  79  99 /   0   5   5  10   0
Temple              97  78  98  77  99 /   0   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       98  77 101  77 101 /   0  20   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091-100>102-115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$