175
FXUS64 KFWD 250555
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Wednesday/

Hot weather will continue through mid week, though an increase in
humidity will drive heat index values up a few degrees compared to
the last several days. Following a warm and muggy morning,
temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon with
only a handful of locations reaching 100 degrees. However, thanks
to the increase in low level moisture, nearly all locations will
see heat index values in the triple digits between 101-110
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of North and
Central Texas through this evening.

After a rain-free spell, low rain chances will return to North
Texas this evening as a cluster of storms in Oklahoma approaches
the area. These storms should be on a weakening trend as they near
the Red River, so the severe threat will be low. However, some
storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

The heat will continue Wednesday, with 100-degree temperatures
becoming slightly more widespread, especially across North Texas.
We will meet Heat Advisory criteria again on Wednesday, but this
could be impacted by the Tuesday night convection. Additionally,
isolated showers/storms may develop near any lingering outflow
boundaries Wednesday afternoon. With these uncertainties in mind,
we`ll hold off on extending the current Heat Advisory for now,
though it will likely need to be extended through Wednesday for at
least portions of the area sometime later today.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

Strong ridging aloft centered over West Texas will become
compromised on its east flank late Tuesday into Wednesday by a
shortwave trough dropping southeast from the Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. This disturbance will help drag a cold front
south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday. The
front and the shortwave together will provide a couple of
opportunities for thunderstorms, the first being Tuesday night
when a east-west oriented linear complex will approach from the
north. Storms should weaken as the approach the Red River, but
will likely hold together long enough to impact areas along and
north of Highway 380. A second opportunity will be Wednesday
afternoon when isolated storms may develop along the stationary
front and move south, which would also affect areas mainly near
the Red River. It is possible that convection may survive as far
south as the I-20 corridor, but probabilities are fairly low
(around 20%). Severe weather appears unlikely at this time in
either case, but gusty winds and heavy rain may accompany the
stronger storms.

Otherwise, the heat will continue to be the main concern for the
next week. It is possible that outflow associated with Tuesday
night/Wednesday convection may knock a few degrees off dewpoints
and/or temperatures, which may allow for a break in the Heat
Advisory for the northern counties for a day. Unfortunately,
compressional warming south of the front will add a few degrees
for areas that miss out on rain or thunderstorm outflow. The ridge
will expand east on Thursday, shutting off rain chances once
again and immersing the entire region in hot and humid conditions
Thursday through the end of the forecast period.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR and south winds near 8 to 12 knots will continue for most of
the period. Patchy MVFR stratus is expected at KACT early Tuesday
morning but still looks to remain south of the D10 terminals at
this time. A cluster of storms will approach the Red River
Tuesday evening and may impact portions of North Texas through
the overnight hours. This activity is expected to be on a
weakening trend, so we`ll hold off on including any mention in the
TAFs for now.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    80  97  80  99  81 /   0   5  20  10   5
Waco                79  96  81  98  79 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               76  96  77  97  76 /   5   5  20  20   5
Denton              79  98  79 101  78 /   0   5  20  10   5
McKinney            78  97  79  99  78 /   0   5  20  10   5
Dallas              81  98  81 100  81 /   0   5  20  10   5
Terrell             78  95  79  97  77 /   0   5  20  10   5
Corsicana           78  97  79  97  79 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              77  97  78  98  77 /   0   0   5   5   0
Mineral Wells       76  98  77 101  77 /   0   0  20   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>132-141>144-156-157.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ092>095-103>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.

&&

$$